A PRAYER TO THE WEATHER GODS

With the Quarterfinals slated to begin in less than 12 hours from now, I took a glance back at the matches that we have seen in the league stage of the World Cup 2011. One thing that immediately struck me was that the Weather Gods have been kind on this edition of the World Cup.

So far in this World Cup, we have had just one match where the Duckworth Lewis System had to be used - Pakistan v. Zimbabwe at Pallekele. And there was just one match that had to be called off due to rain - Sri Lanka v. Australia at Colombo. This is quite good as compared to the last two editions of the World Cup.

In 2007, even though no match had to be called off, but there were 7 matches that were decided by the use of Duckworth Lewis System, including the infamous and farcical Finals between Australia and Sri Lanka.

In 2003, there were 5 matches decided with the use of Duckworth Lewis System (including that tie between hosts South Africa and Sri Lanka that resulted in the elimination of the former in the first round itself) and there were 2 matches that had to be called off due to rain. Amongst the D/L results, there was the First Semi-Final between Australia and Sri Lanka (yet again... rain seems to follow these two countries' matches in World Cups) at Port Elizabeth. There was a minor rain interruption in the Finals between Australia and India as well, though not enough to curtail the match or cancel it.

Now, there are 7 more matches left - all Knockouts. 3 of those MAY face bad weather. I know that these weather reports do end up being unreliable on a lot of occasions like this one, but still I cannot help having a look at them.

3rd Quarter Final - South Africa v. New Zealand at Dhaka on 25th March - Weather.
4th Quarter Final - Sri Lanka v. England at Colombo on 26th March - Weather.
1st Semi Final - Winner of 3rd QF v. Winner of 4th QF at Colombo on 29th March - Weather.

Not the best reading, but I am hoping that like they have done all through this tournament, the Weather Gods will be kind enough to let cricket take center stage. Considering how D/L Method haunted South Africa in 2003, and calculated Sri Lanka's elimination in 2003 and 2007, the fans of these two countries should mutter a silent prayer for an uninterrupted game. Rains have invariably shown themselves in the final stages of last two World Cups, but lets hope they stay away this time.

(Note - If you want to know what will happen in case rain intervenes and the match cannot be completed, read the procedure specified towards the end of this page.)

QUARTER FINALS PROBABILITIES - AFTER SL v. NZ

Sri Lanka's huge win over New Zealand at the Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai has now made calculations for the Quarterfinals lineup a lot easier. Group A has only one meaningful match remaining - Australia v. Pakistan. Group B has two - Bangladesh v. South Africa and India v. West Indies.

The table below shows the possibilities of Group standings taking into consideration the effects of Net Run Rate as well.

In the Group A standings, I have deliberately included a third option where points will be shared between the teams because of this:

So there you go... from the table above, the following statements can be conclusively made:

1. Sri Lanka will finish 2nd in Group A, irrespective of what happens between Australia v. Pakistan tomorrow at Colombo.

2. If the most likely scenario of SA beating BD, Aus beating Pak, and Ind beating WI, the Quarterfinals will be - South Africa v. Pakistan (Mirpur), India v. New Zealand (Ahmedabad), Sri Lanka v. England (Colombo), Australia v. West Indies (Mirpur).

3. Sri Lanka will contest their QF at home in Colombo unless SA beat BD (likely) AND WI beat Ind (unlikely).

4. South Africa will not play against Sri Lanka in the Quarterfinals... and so, their Quarterfinals will be held in Mirpur, Dhaka.

5. The last conclusion is not a result of the table above, but just a general one. Because of England's fantastic fluctuations in performances and results, the team managers of all teams (except India and South Africa) are facing a lot of logistical problems as they are unsure about where their Quarterfinals are likely to be held!

IT'S REVENGE TIME, FOLKS!

It's time to wipe those smiles off!

Virender Sehwag has already called it. The rest of the Indian team must be quietly admitting it. The opening match for India in their World Cup 2011 campaign against Bangladesh is no ordinary match... it is a 'revenge' match.

There was a time when such 'revenge' matches existed during the World Cup itself. During the 1983 and 1987 World Cups, each team played the others in their group twice. So if you were upset the first time round, you could seek revenge in the next match. In fact, in 1983, on the very first day of the World Cup campaign (June 9, 1983), West Indies and Australia were upset by India and Zimbabwe respectively.

But a week later, West Indies had their revenge on India on June 15... and Australia had their revenge on Zimbabwe on June 16. Eventually, this West Indian victory was lost in time because India managed to stun the defending champions in the finals at Lord's on June 25, 1983. It was a revenge for the revenge match!

Now at Mirpur, almost 28 years after that stunning victory, India seek to begin another World Cup campaign on a victorious note... against the hosts Bangladesh. While Bangladesh may be quietly confident of pulling off another win over their more-fancied neighbours to make in 2 out of 2 in World Cups, the Indians will be in no mood to let it happen.

A lot of members of the current Indian line up were also a part of that bitter defeat in their opening game of the previous World Cup... a defeat that threw their World Cup campaign completely off track! The other members, who were not a part of that team, must have certainly seen that match or followed it in some way or the other. All of them must have definitely felt the pain of that loss... either as players or as supporters!

The pain of a supporter is something I felt to a great degree. I was watching that match in a hostel... with a crowd of what must have been another 50 people. And what had started as a raucous day came to a very meek and silent end! I can still remember the people holding on to shreds of hope despite India being bundled out for a below-200 score. I can still remember the prayers that started getting louder and more desperate as Tamim Iqbal got Bangladesh off to a flying start. I can still remember those profanities that were being shouted at both the batsmen and the bowlers after every hit that reached the fence in the second innings.

Oh man, it was a heartbreak! There was anger in the eyes of whoever you met for a week after that loss and the loss later to Sri Lanka. Over time, in these intervening four years, that anger has subsided. Indian team won the Test Series in England, World Twenty20 Championship, the CB Series in Australia... then followed an unbeaten run in Test series' played at home and other wins as well like the Asia Cup and the Compaq Cup. There was also the rise to the World No. 1 in Tests and now, coming to the World Cup as genuine title contenders, the memories of that defeat against Bangladesh have subsided to a great extent.

But the feeling of hurt and humiliation that rose as a result of that loss always remained hidden at the back of everyone's heads. Now that the time has come to begin another World Cup campaign with a match against Bangladesh, the Indian team is expected to do nothing short of annihilate their neighbours. The expectations are huge and the pressure is enormous... but not without reason. The performances of the Indian team during these last 4 years have given the people a reason to expect... and a victory over Bangladesh in the opening encounter will be the beginning!

Sehwag termed Bangladesh as an "ordinary Test side" a little over a year ago... and now, he has termed this match as a "revenge match". I now hope that he does all he can as a part of his effort in this revenge (for more reasons than one - you see, he is also the captain of my Cricinfo Fantasy League team)! Come on now boys, ATTACK!

EDEN GARDENS - THE UNLUCKY 13TH?

I don't know how many of you believe in numerology and how many of you consider the number 13 unlucky. If you do, then I must let you know that there are a total of 13 cricket grounds across the sub-continent that are scheduled to host the World Cup matches.

1. Mirpur (Dhaka), Bangladesh - Shere Bangla National Stadium
2. Chittagong, Bangladesh - Zahur Ahmed Chowdhury Stadium
3. Ahmedabad, India - Sardar Patel Stadium (Motera)
4. Bangalore, India - M. Chinnaswamy Stadium
5. Chennai, India - MA Chidambaram Stadium (Chepauk)
6. Kolkata, India - Eden Gardens
7. Mohali, India - PCA Stadium
8. Mumbai, India - Wankhede Stadium
9. Nagpur, India - VCA Stadium (Jamtha)
10. New Delhi, India - Feroz Shah Kotla Stadium
11. Colombo, Sri Lanka - R. Premadasa Stadium
12. Hambantota, Sri Lanka - Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium
13. Pallekele (Kandy), Sri Lanka - Pallekele International Cricket Stadium

If you believe that 13 is unlucky, then be prepared to see Eden Gardens lose its right to host the remaining matches as well in a few days' time.