Friday, March 18, 2011

QUARTER FINALS PROBABILITIES - AFTER SL v. NZ

Sri Lanka's huge win over New Zealand at the Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai has now made calculations for the Quarterfinals lineup a lot easier. Group A has only one meaningful match remaining - Australia v. Pakistan. Group B has two - Bangladesh v. South Africa and India v. West Indies.

The table below shows the possibilities of Group standings taking into consideration the effects of Net Run Rate as well.


In the Group A standings, I have deliberately included a third option where points will be shared between the teams because of this:


So there you go... from the table above, the following statements can be conclusively made:

1. Sri Lanka will finish 2nd in Group A, irrespective of what happens between Australia v. Pakistan tomorrow at Colombo.

2. If the most likely scenario of SA beating BD, Aus beating Pak, and Ind beating WI, the Quarterfinals will be - South Africa v. Pakistan (Mirpur), India v. New Zealand (Ahmedabad), Sri Lanka v. England (Colombo), Australia v. West Indies (Mirpur).

3. Sri Lanka will contest their QF at home in Colombo unless SA beat BD (likely) AND WI beat Ind (unlikely).

4. South Africa will not play against Sri Lanka in the Quarterfinals... and so, their Quarterfinals will be held in Mirpur, Dhaka.

5. The last conclusion is not a result of the table above, but just a general one. Because of England's fantastic fluctuations in performances and results, the team managers of all teams (except India and South Africa) are facing a lot of logistical problems as they are unsure about where their Quarterfinals are likely to be held!

5 comments:

Sidthegnomenator said...

Ooooh, that weather does not look promising, does it? While a wash out leaves us in top position, I worry that the Aussies haven't had a real good run out yet. I want this Pakistan match to happen, and happen properly. And I want us to win.

naturally.

Shridhar Jaju said...

Sid, even if the weather does play foul, Australia will play either West Indies or England in the QFs (presuming BD don't upset SA).

Both, in my opinion, are manageable oppositions for Australia. They can win these matches and also get some good practice against decent opponents ahead of the semis.

Shridhar Jaju said...

Sid,

By the way, if Australia does end up on top of Group A and India finish 2nd in Group B, then your team and my team will meet in the semis (assuming both cross the QFs, which shouldn't be a problem).

Then, I would love to see India finish Australia's 12-year unbeaten run in World Cup cricket!

Naturally! ;-)

Anonymous said...

Its India vs Sri Lanka or India vs Australia jaju. I dont have good hopes from India in either scenario. Lets see the results!!!!!!!!

Shridhar Jaju said...

I am still hopeful yaar!

SAVE OUR TIGER!