POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF THE CAPE TOWN TEST

And so it's set to begin tomorrow... The hosts and 2nd ranked South Africa will take on the visiting team and top-ranked India in the deciding Third Test at Newlands, Cape Town. It has been an amazing series so far... and I hope it continues that way in the shadow of the Table Mountain from tomorrow.

Like I wrote in an earlier blog, India has not won two consecutive away Tests in the same series against a top-8 Test team for about 2 and a half decades. Now the challenge for them is to tame the No. 2 side in the world.

IF INDIA WIN

If India do manage to pull out a series win at Cape Town, the world will be a lot closer to acknowledging India's rank as No. 1 Test team. The English might still say that India needs to beat them later this year... and they would have a point there. England did not manage to beat South Africa last time they visited the Rainbow Nation, so India will be able to boast of a series win there... but the English will remind India that they just beat Australia in Australia... something that India has not quite managed for a number of years now. South Africa's claim to the No. 1 spot will be a lot subdued and India's tour of England might become another tussle for the No. 1 spot that India will have to win to justify the ranking.

IF SOUTH AFRICA WIN

If South Africa beat India at Newlands, be assured that they will claim themselves to be the 'unofficial' No. 1 Test team in the world. India's No. 1 ranking will then be referred to as just a piece of paper with some calculations. And then even if India beat England later in July - August, this defeat will keep on souring the taste of the No. 1 spot that they will in most likelihood maintain. With a win at Cape Town, South Africa, alongside England, will start thinking of themselves as the best in Tests... and India's tour to England will further complicate matters then. An Indian win will again make it a three-horse boasting race whereas an English win will intensify the two-horse race between South Africa and England.

(Note: No matter what South Africans would like to claim, the fact that there are a number of South African-born players in the English team shall not be considered as a point in their favour.)

IF IT IS A DRAW

Well, a draw at Newlands would keep the status quo. India will continue to call themselves as No. 1 (both officially and unofficially). South Africa will not be able to boast of the fact that they are the only team over the last 6 and a half years to have scraped through with a draw on tour of India... twice! Because a draw would mean that India has done the same. England's chants would continue and India's tour of England would be a decisive moment. If India draw the Test series with England as well, though the No. 1 ranking will still be in the bag, the team will be criticised for not being ruthless enough to finish teams off.

FINAL ANALYSIS

So if we really want an 'undisputed' No. 1 to emerge by the year end, the best we can hope for is an Indian win at Cape Town. I would certainly be hoping for that... though sadly, except for Day 1, I would not be able to follow the rest of it properly. I will have to be relying on Cricinfo commentary, SMS updates from friends and whenever possible, I will try and catch up a bit on the TV. I will be on the road for the about 10 days, which would mean that I would also miss another rendition of the 'Sprinkler Dance' (it it happens) at Sydney.

I hope that the four teams play out two cracking New Year Tests to kick of a year, which I hope will be another brilliant one for Test cricket.