Friday, March 18, 2011

QUARTER FINALS PROBABILITIES - AFTER ENG v. WI

This post is in the updated version of my previous one regarding the Quarterfinals fixtures and their probabilities.

NOTES:

1. Out of the 6 remaining matches, 2 will have no impact on the Quarterfinals lineup - Ireland v. Netherlands and Kenya v. Zimbabwe.

2. I have assumed none of the matches will be washed out, even though the weather forecasts state that there will be scattered thunderstorms over Colombo on the day of Australia v. Pakistan match.

3. In all the matches, equal probabilities have been given for each side to emerge as the winner (even though, in my opinion, South Africa should be given a higher probability of winning against Bangladesh).

4. Lastly, I have assumed that the NRR of the teams will not change significantly over the remaining matches, and therefore, in case of a tie of points, the team with the higher NRR as of present has been ranked higher.

RESULTS:

Let us look at the probability of individual teams and their Quarter-final opponents.

GROUP A:

Australia -

Chances of playing Bangladesh in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing England in QFs: 25% (earlier 12.5%)
Chances of playing India in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing South Africa in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing West Indies in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 12.5%)

New Zealand -

Chances of playing Bangladesh in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing England in QFs: 12.5% (ealier 6.25%)
Chances of playing India in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing South Africa in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing West Indies in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)

Pakistan -

Chances of playing Bangladesh in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing England in QFs: 12.5% (ealier 6.25%)
Chances of playing India in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing South Africa in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing West Indies in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)

Sri Lanka -

Chances of playing Bangladesh in QFs: 25% (earlier 18.75%)
Chances of playing England in QFs: 0% (earlier 0%)
Chances of playing India in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing South Africa in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing West Indies in QFs: 25% (earlier 31.25%)

GROUP B:

Bangladesh -

Chances of playing Australia in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing New Zealand in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing Pakistan in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing Sri Lanka in QFs: 25% (earlier 18.75%)
Chances of not qualifying for QFs: 25% (earlier 12.5%)

England -

Chances of playing Australia in QFs: 25% (earlier 12.5%)
Chances of playing New Zealand in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 6.25%)
Chances of playing Pakistan in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 6.25%)
Chances of playing Sri Lanka in QFs: 0% (earlier 0%)
Chances of not qualifying for QFs: 50% (earlier 75%)

India -

Chances of playing Australia in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing New Zealand in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing Pakistan in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing Sri Lanka in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of not qualifying for QFs: 0% (earlier 0%)

South Africa -

Chances of playing Australia in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing New Zealand in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing Pakistan in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing Sri Lanka in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of not qualifying for QFs: 0% (earlier 0%)

West Indies -

Chances of playing Australia in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 12.5%)
Chances of playing New Zealand in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing Pakistan in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing Sri Lanka in QFs: 25% (earlier 31.25%)
Chances of not qualifying for QFs: 25% (earlier 12.5%)

However, like I have already said, I think these percentages above do not reflect a true picture because I have assumed equal chances of winning for both South Africa and Bangladesh in their match as well as the fact that I have assumed that the NRR will remain pretty much the same till the group stages finish. The worst affected due to these two assumptions is England.

I will keep updating the changes in these percentages above after the end of every match from hereon (except the ones that have no effect on these probabilities as mentioned in Note 1 above).

1 comment:

jimmymycrushie said...

Wow you do a lot of research and calculation! By the way, I replied to your latest comment on my blog.

SAVE OUR TIGER!