PLANNING OF A CHASE - 2

What a chase we had today! India, needing a bonus point win, chased down Sri Lanka's score of 320 in just 36.4 overs, to win by 7 wickets with 80 balls to spare. This win has kept India alive in this tri-series for at least 3 more days, and increased the interest in the last round robin match between Australia and Sri Lanka.

India knew right from the beginning that the target, whatever it may be, had to be chased down in 40 overs or less. So when the first half ended and the target of 321 became clear, the hopes of an average Indian fan were not too high. But the Indian batting unit, which has not enjoyed a fruitful tour of Australia, clicked well and - riding on a magnificent ton by Virat Kohli - chased down the target in a more than convincing style!

The chase was a brilliantly constructed one. Since the required rate for a 40-over win was above 8 runs per over, it was clear that a fast start would be of utmost importance. Sehwag and Tendulkar provided that with some audacious batting. When the mandatory powerplay ended, India had scored 97 runs for the loss of the two openers.

When Tendulkar got out lbw to Malinga in the 10th over, there were a lot of tweets on my timeline suggesting that Dhoni should come out to bat. Their logic must have been that he takes his time to settle in, and if there is time to be used up, it better be between 10 - 15 overs rather than later in the innings. That is fine, but I was happier to see Kohli come in to bat at No. 4, and happier still that he stayed till the end to guide the chase in a manner contrasting of how Dhoni would have done it.

My last post on this blog (about 2.5 weeks ago) was about Dhoni's planning of chases. This one is about how Virat Kohli planned this one, and comparing it with what Dhoni would have done (the latter part would obviously be presumption based on the pattern of his innings in the successful run chase against Australia and the tied match against Sri Lanka).

On of my biggest problem with Dhoni when he comes out to bat with overs in hand in a run chase is that he plays far too many dot balls at the start of his innings. Settling in is fine, but the same can be done more effectively by rotating the strike rather than dead batting the ball. Kohli too played 8 dot balls between 10 and 15 overs, but at the end of 15 overs, he was still batting on 16* (18b). Compare this with Dhoni's knock in the successful run chase against Australia, and you will find that Dhoni stood at 8* (24b) at one stage in that chase. Even if you grant Dhoni the benefit of a much easier chase on hand against Australia, I don't think you'd still justify 8 runs in 24 balls!

At the end of 15 overs, India stood at 118 for 2, and though only 21 had been scored in the last 5 overs, there was enough momentum to make Mahela Jayawardene delay taking the Bowling Powerplay, as he has himself admitted. Had Kohli made the kind of start that Dhoni made at Adelaide, India might have had about 10 runs fewer at that stage, and Sri Lanka might have taken the Bowling Powerplay, causing the batsmen to take a risk or two more than ideal. This is presumption, but by no means far-fetched!

In my last post, I had written: "if the best finisher of the team (MS Dhoni) is coming in to bat with 92 needed of 95 balls and batsmen like Suresh Raina (batting), Jadeja and Ashwin (to follow), and the team ends up needing 13 in the final over with two of these above batsmen still batting, then the chase has been miscalculated somewhere."

At Hobart, two of India's best chasers (Gambhir and Kohli) planned it in such a way that going up to the 40th over would not be necessary. One may argue that the early finish was more a result of the leaking Malinga - an assault that even Kohli would admit that he had not planned for - but I think it is still quite clear that Kohli had planned to finish the game off at least one over before the 40th. Their partnership saw calculated risks (mostly taken by Kohli) for boundaries every now and again, which allowed them to be unflustered if Sri Lanka managed to sneek in a good tight over. This is the reason why Rangana Herath's spell of 4 overs for just 20 runs did not have as big an effect on the result as it should have had.

When the second lot of powerplay overs commenced, Kohli executed the second half of his plan, which was to attack straightaway and keep the required run rate below 9 runs per over at all times, rather than chasing 13 off the final over! He was obviously helped by some poor bowling from Sri Lanka, especially some of the leg-stump lines... but one must consider that when a batsman is pulling off some calculated risks, the bowlers are under increased pressure and have greater tendency to falter.

India may still not reach the finals of the series, but it was a great match for the team... and something they dearly needed towards the end of a very difficult tour of Australia!

PLANNING OF A CHASE

India beat Australia earlier today by 4 wickets with 2 balls to spare at Adelaide in the 4th ODI of the CB Triangular Series. While Gautam Gambhir was India's top contributor with a measured 92, it was Dhoni's knock of 44* (58) that was the talking point of the day.

India won the match due to a massive 112 meter six by Dhoni followed by a no-ball by Clint McKay due to a above-waist height full toss. Once it was over, a lot of people called it all well and good... but was it just as well and good when the chase was on? My Twitter timeline at the time of the chase said that most of the viewers were having trouble understanding why Dhoni was leaving it so late. And I was with them... indeed, why so late?

The biggest question raised after Dhoni hit that monstrous six was that if one can hit such shots, why not try it earlier to ease a bit of pressure, rather than risking it all at the end. And these kind of queries were not just raised in the minds of casual viewers, but also the men in the dressing room. The Man of the Match Gautam Gambhir had this to say: "We should have finished this game in the 48th over. We shouldn't have taken this game to the 50th over, that's my personal observation."

What is the best way to plan and pace a chase? When do you attack and when do you rely on quick running? Obviously, the answers differ in different conditions, but I think certain things remain common everywhere. In my opinion, if the best finisher of the team (MS Dhoni) is coming in to bat with 92 needed of 95 balls and batsmen like Suresh Raina (batting), Jadeja and Ashwin (to follow), and the team ends up needing 13 in the final over with two of these above batsmen still batting, then the chase has been miscalculated somewhere.

And in this innings of MS Dhoni, it is quite apparent where the miscalculation occurred. His innings break up is like this - 8 runs of first 24 balls, 25 of next 31 balls, and 11 runs of the last 3 balls. He came in when 92 were needed of 95 balls, and ended up playing 30 dot balls, i.e. 52% of the total deliveries he faced. To put it in perspective, Gambhir faced 52 dot balls in his 111-ball innings, i.e. 47% of the total deliveries faced by him, despite batting through the middle overs as well!

One might well argue that since Dhoni was not doing much to get the required run rate down, Raina and Jadeja had to go for the big hits, and lose their wickets in the process. Gambhir was right when he said that it's difficult in the middle, and different people plan their chases differently, but surely, when you end up with 7 runs of 19 balls in the Batting Powerplay and play a dot ball in almost every over where you also take a 2, you are not doing a lot of good, are you?

Dhoni is usually a fabulous planner and executor of chases - stiff ones, tricky ones, easy ones and straightforward ones. He, along with Gautam Gambhir and Virat Kohli, have made India a very competent chasing unit in limited overs cricket, and also made the World Cup runners-up captain Kumar Sangakkara remark that a team needs about 350 runs on the board to feel safe against this Indian team. But every now and again, there arises a question mark of Dhoni's strategies in such situations.

Like it arose today, it had also arisen during the first Twenty20 between India and Australia earlier on this tour. One of the earlier occasions that I can remember when a similar question had arisen in my mind was not a chase, but India setting a target for New Zealand on the tour of 2009 in the 2nd Twenty20 International, where he wasted the middle overs with 8* (18) before ending up with 28* (30). In that match too, it might be argued that Dhoni's slow approach forced Yuvraj Singh, Yusuf Pathan and Ravindra Jadeja to play shots that shouldn't have ideally been required in those situations.

The man I have written this post about - MS Dhoni - had brilliantly executed the 161 required runs of 170 balls in the World Cup finals. The run rate required then at Wankhede Stadium was 5.68 runs per over, and here at Adelaide Oval was 5.81 runs per over. If he can do it so well there, why couldn't he do it as well here? Had this been a one-off case, I wouldn't have bothered writing this long a post, presuming it to be a mistake. But it is not a one-off case, and thus this has to be considered a strategy of some sort - and in my opinion, a miscalculated strategy!

COMPARING THE TWO HORROR TOURS

Taking a leaf out of Stuart Broad's book!

This one's headed the same way as the last one... and it is unbelievably painful to watch it happen. Mad hope kept flickering up every now and again, but there was always an air of inevitability even when there was some promise being shown.

Which tour is more depressing as a cricket viewer? I really have no idea, and even if I discover some way of measuring my depression, I would really not be interested in doing so. But since we are in the midst of the Australian tour, I want to touch upon certain points that make me really afraid of what's happening and what more might happen.

During the tour of England, a lot of things went wrong for India. It was believed that if some of those things had gone right, India would not have suffered the embarrassment of a whitewash. In the period between the England tour and the Australian tour, there were a few steps taken that were seemingly lessons from the former. Yet, here we are... facing the very same 4-0 scoreline against an opponent that is definitely not as good as England had been!

So what were the excuses that could have been passed off as reasons for the England debacle?

ZAHEER KHAN LIMPING OUT

India received the biggest blow possible on the very first day of the Test series in England, when Zaheer Khan limped back into the dressing room clutching his hamstring muscles after having picked up the wickets of both the English openers (and having a catch dropped of their No. 3 in the slips) by soundly working them over. The absence of Zaheer Khan for the rest of the tour was considered to be one of the biggest factors of India's losses there by all and sundry.

But now, in hindsight, one wonders how much of a difference would he really have made! He has been available for all the 3 Test matches in Australia, and while he has bowled well himself, India's attack really has not looked as threatening as it should have considering the personnel present. One might say that the Zaheer-led bowling attack has done commendably except for that one period spanning over two Tests in different time zones where they conceded 836 runs for just 1 wicket, but that is a hollow argument!

The only conclusion that can be drawn after watching India bowl in the 7 losses thus far is that with or without Zaheer Khan, the bowling has just not been good enough to get the team within sights of a victory! While their opponents have had bowlers (Stuart Broad and Peter Siddle being prime examples) who have altered their bowling lengths to gain impressive rewards, the Indian team continue to field a bowler (read Ishant Sharma) whose lengths have received sound punishment and have shown no signs of changing.

INJURIES IN BATTING

In England, India was hampered by lack of fit personnel even at the top of the batting lineup. Sehwag was unfit for the first two Tests, and did not look fit enough even in his return for the last two Tests. Gambhir suffered injuries during the series. Tendulkar had to play an innings battling fever. Yuvraj Singh got injured during the series.

In Australia, there have been no such problems. Sehwag came in completely fit having scored the highest score by a batsman in ODIs, and Gambhir too came in fully fit and having recovered a bit of his lost touch against the West Indies at home. And even before the series started, there was more or less a certainty that Virat Kohli would be given a decent run at the No. 6 spot. So as a result, India played an unchanged top-7 in all three Tests... and floundered in each one of them!

The consistent failures of the Indian batting unit have been very baffling and difficult to explain. These men have brilliant records and have been proven performers in the past even in tough away conditions too. With these 7 losses, voices have grown loud that these batting stalwarts are old now, and their age is showing up in their batting. Dravid's spree of bowled dismissals are explained as a result of slowing reflexes.

These very same men had had wonderful runs with the bat in not too distant a past, and back then, they were being described as fine wine - getting better with age. Now, they are supposedly getting slower with age. It's the easiest way of calling for their heads, I suppose!

While it is obvious that sooner rather than later, these men will have to make way for a younger generation of batsmen, one needs to realise that age has hardly been a factor in their undoing. Yes, they have failed... failed in 7 consecutive away Tests! But I honestly believe that this failure has been more due to much braver (read fuller) bowling from the opposition bowlers in helpful conditions. Since the Indian bowlers have not been able to replicate such consistency in bowling, the opposition batsmen have been made to look much better than their Indian counterparts, which may not be the genuine case!

LACK OF PREPARATION

In England, lack of acclimatisation and preparation in those conditions was considered to be a major factor in the losses. The Indian team landed in England after the Caribbean tour less than 10 complete days before the start of the first Test. They played just one 3-day warm-up game before the first Test, and looked ill at ease in conditions that were completely different from the ones they are accustomed to.

For the Australian tour, certain players reached Down Under more than two weeks before the first Test, and the others reached about 12 days prior. The preparation involved one 3-day game and one 2-day game. No player was coming in unfit or with the lack of match practice. In fact, India's biggest concern was over the fitness of Zaheer Khan... but he too played two Ranji games before playing a warm-up match in Australia.

After the first Test at MCG, Dhoni said that India have always been poor starters. It was depressing to see him hide behind that age-old facade... while the truth remains that the first Test was the one where the team was the most competitive during this tour, and had genuine chances of a win! Since then, it has all been downhill.

SCHEDULING

The IPL got a lot of flak after the England disaster, because of the way it disrupted cricket schedules. While the rest before the Australian tour for the team was hardly any better, but they were at home in an ODI series. This meant that the core of India's middle order was well rested and those who were participating in the ODI series were doing so to gain match fitness, practice or cement their spots in the Test team.

The scheduling also received a lot of flak because of the inadequate acclimatisation factor, as touched upon in the previous point. Yet no such reasons can be passed off here in Australia. The only conclusion that I can draw is that the team has actually been outplayed on the field, and any changes in the external factors would hardly have made any difference to the eventual result!



In England, the Indian team was beaten by a deserving side functioning at the top of its game. All the reasons / excuses that were put up by the fans defending the team were nothing but a protective shield to prevent any adverse after-effect of that shocking loss! Therefore, it was doubly depressing to see that protective shield blown apart piece-by-piece in a systematic fashion to leave the team and the fans nakedly exposed and vulnerable.

Every now and again, time calls for change. For the Indian team, there had been confusion over the past couple of years about when exactly is that time. Well, there is no such confusion now! That time for change has come, and a lot of rebuilding needs to be done. There will be more losses on the way, and more pain to be endured. But what needs to be done must be done!

THE DRAVID SELECTION DEBATE

After what's been a nightmare of a Test series for an Indian cricket fan, the only silver lining is that it can continue for just 3 more days. I hope the change from white to blue will change the fortunes as well!

Talking of white to blue, I was just thinking about the Indian ODI squad for the 5-match series later. And obviously, the biggest surprise in that list was a certain Rahul Dravid.

Dravid has been one of the face-savers of India's batting in this Test series. With 2 hundreds against his name, he does seem to have gotten his touch back after a not-so-good run over the past 2 years. It was nice to see him bat the way he did, and the best aspect of his batting on this tour for me was that he did not get bogged down even when India was in a backs-to-the-wall situation (which was often). He still played his shots when the bad balls came (which was rare)! Over the last 2 years, I think he used to get bogged down quite easily but it didn't affect India much because the men around him were having golden runs.

Coming back to the ODI squad, as good a form as Dravid may be in, it was a surprise still to see him named in the ODI squad. I know that the Test team has been hammered by the English bowlers and English conditions. Yet, I somehow feel that asking Dravid to strengthen the ODI squad's Middle Order is a bit of a regressive step.

The last ODI that India played under MS Dhoni, it defeated Sri Lanka by 6 wickets in a match that was the finals of a World Cup! If you do not retain faith in a World Cup winning squad, it is quite a disappointment.

For the sake of argument, people would say that India was the No. 1 Test team too going into this Test series. Yet is floundered in a big way! But the point is, are we going to use this Test series then as a judgement scale for all our future selections in all formats of the game? Yes, it was a nightmare of a series, as I have already stated. But the ODI squad is different - even if it has to fail, it should be allowed its own chance to fail! The fact that the selectors have decided beforehand that the ODI squad is likely to fail and thus it requires services of Rahul Dravid, even without giving it a chance to fail, has disappointed me immensely.

The selectors have often been criticised for making Test selections on the basis of ODI performances, and Suresh Raina is still used as a case in point. Now they are making an ODI selection on the basis of Test cricket. How is the latter justified if the former is considered wrong?

I remember the time when the Vengsarkar-led selection panel decided to field a very young and inexperienced ODI squad against Australia in Australia. Back then, Australia were the reigning World Champions and also the World No. 1 team in ODIs (as they still are). Yet, we were bold enough to test our younger lot in the harshest way possible.

A certain Gautam Gambhir was the highest run-scorer for India in that tri-series. That same Gautam Gambhir went on to have a brilliant run in Test cricket over the next 2 years, and a little over 3 years after that tri-series, that same Gautam Gambhir fell 3 runs short of a World Cup final winning century while chasing a stiff target!

As a fan of the Fab Four batting lineup, I do feel happy to see Dravid back in the ODI squad. But as an Indian cricket fan, I do not think it is a move in the right direction. Rahul Dravid was persisted with despite a prolonged slump in his batting performances for over 2 years. I think the selectors should have shown similar faith in India's ODI batting unit!

2000, 2001, 2003 AND 2004

Four Test matches between the No. 1 and No. 3 Test playing teams in the world. The prospect is exciting as it is, but the romance is magnified when you consider the number 2000!

Test cricket will grow up to become 2000 matches old in a little more than 12 and a half hours from now. The Anglo-Indian Test rivalry (never as highly celebrated and talked of as it has been over the last two weeks) will grow up to become 100 matches old. Indian coach Duncan Fletcher will attend his 100th Test match as a Head Coach... 96 of which were in the role of the English Cricket Team Coach!

And then there is the anticipation of Sachin Tendulkar's 100th international century - a remarkable achievement when it comes (though 99 is no less remarkable on its own either)! However, this post is a preview to the England v. India Test series that begins at Lord's, London tomorrow (which is why the title of the post extends till 2004, and does not stop at 2000; by the way, Test no. 2002 will be between Zimbabwe and Bangladesh in early August)... so I will keep the anticipation of this landmark out of it from hereon.

The teams first -

The hosts are fairly decided on their combination for the game tomorrow. The only spot up for grabs is of the third pacer... and the fight is between the off-colour Stuart Broad and the coming-back-from-an-injury-break Tim Bresnan. Out of the two, I am fairly certain that Stuart Broad is going to feature tomorrow, simply because of the talks of continuity in England's high cricketing circles as well as Broad's leadership role in the team. Add to it the fact that Bresnan is returning from an injury lay-off, I think the English team management would prefer to go for Broad rather than the former.

As far as the visitors are concerned, there are a few small question marks. The biggest one (relatively speaking) of these is the spot of the third pacer (just like the hosts). Some people are suggesting Sreesanth will be picked to accompany Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma, others say (with reason) that Praveen Kumar would be a better choice.

Putting it simply, Praveen Kumar can be looked upon as a slower and more-controlled version of Sreesanth. While Praveen Kumar can generate similarly prodigious swing and with greater consistency and control than Sreesanth, it is also quite clear that he will never be able to produce balls such as the one that accounted for Kallis (yes, that snorter) in the Boxing Day Test at Durban 2010! Sometimes, if the game is tight and drifting away, those one-off plays decide the outcome! Nevertheless, if I were asked to pick my squad, Praveen Kumar might just marginally win the race for me. I would not want to gamble... atleast not in the 1st Test, which has always been India's Achilles heal. After Lord's, maybe I could reconsider.

The second question, the answer to which has been all but found, is the spot of India's No. 6 batsman. Raina has his problems against short balls and is almost devoid of backfoot play. England know that and will be ready to unleash Tremlett and Broad / Bresnan when he arrives to the crease. But what counts in favour of Raina is that in recent times, he has shown fight! Be it the crucial knock against Australia in the quarter-finals of the World Cup or through out the West Indies tour, Raina has impressed most observers. My respect for him has never been as high as it is at this moment in time. All in all, it means that Yuvraj Singh might just have to wait in the wings for some more time!

However, the third question, based on a slightly far-fetched idea, might reduce Yuvraj Singh's wait! There has been some talk of not using Abhinav Mukund as the opener and asking Rahul Dravid to open instead. In such a scenario, Yuvraj Singh can be accommodated at No. 5 / No. 6. I have a couple of issues with this idea. One, this would put two of India's main middle order batsmen in an uncomfortable situation - Rahul Dravid and VVS Laxman (who will have to bat at No. 3). Yes, Dravid has opened before and might well have to come in at 10 for 1, but asking him to open will put him in a zone of discomfort. He prefers being at No. 3 rather than No. 1 or No. 2, and I would rather have him continue at that place. Laxman too has played well at No. 3 (where he scored that 281), but to push him up there at such short notice would be sacrilege. Two, India has tried this ploy of opening with Dravid to accommodate Yuvraj once before - Australia tour of 2007/08. It was a dismal failure. For me, it's now a case of once bitten twice shy!

Comparing the two teams, they look very similar on paper. The element that could have separated the two teams is nursing a shoulder injury and will not be available for a minimum of 2 Tests. I do not want to talk about how India will miss Sehwag, because everyone has talked about it, every knows about it, everyone has an opinion about it, and for once, hardly anyone has an opinion contrary to the popular one!

As a result, England gain significant advantage in the opening combination. Strauss may have been out of form in recent times, but his contribution has been more than made up for by his vice-captain and opening partner Alastair Cook. He is having the time of his life, and will be India's biggest threat at the top. As for India, Gautam Gambhir (returning from an injury himself) will now have to show the true worth of his leadership role in the team by guiding a young Abhinav Mukund at this big stage. Though Gambhir has moved on to captaining India in some ODIs, he has never commanded a big leadership role in the Test side, mainly due to the presence of some high-profile seniors. Now is the time to take on that role more seriously, and bring out his best... because in England, there is no doubt that he will be tested.

While the Indian middle order looks more impressive on paper, the English middle order is about on par when it comes to form. Trott is in a small lean phase, but he has been a run machine. Pietersen seems to be coming out of his lean phase that he encountered a year or so ago. Bell is in tremendous form himself, and Morgan is ready too. For India, Dravid is showing positive signs again and though Sachin is making a comeback to cricket after some break, he is expected to continue his golden run of 2010. Laxman is playing as well as he ever has and Raina, as I have mentioned, is showing the fight in him. In the keeper-batsman's role, Prior trumps Dhoni. The latter has not been able to play a Test innings of great significance for quite some time now (about 5 Tests).

As we come to the bowling, it gets interesting. Anderson and Zaheer are the main men and leaders of the attack. Skill-wise, they are similar. Zaheer is slightly more experienced of the two, but his fitness will be in question. Tremlett and Ishant Sharma are similar back-of-the-length bowlers who get good bounce due to their height. Both have shown a lot of promise in the recent past. Broad / Bresnan make the English pace attack a tad bit uni-dimensional... all right arm pacers - one swing bowler and two hit-the-deck-hard bowlers. With Praveen / Sreesanth, India's attack has more variety - one left arm swing bowler, one right arm swing bowler and one hit-the-deck-hard bowler. The attack is completed by off-spinners. Swann is currently the best spinner is the world, but he will be up against batsmen who play spin better than any other middle order in any team, arguably in any era! Harbhajan has, in recent times, been subject to immense criticism, but to his advantage will be the fact that he will be bowling to batsmen who are not entirely comfortable against spin.

There are shower forecasts on all five days of the Lord's Test. So even if they are scattered showers, I think it will be safe to assume a draw would be the most probable outcome there, unless we witness a batting collapse. India, slow starters on away tours, will have to guard against such a collapse.

The second Test is to be played at Trent Bridge, Nottingham. This was where India sealed the only result of their previous tour to win the series 1-0. A result is expected here too... and though most people think that the bowlers will decide the result here, I believe the contrary. In my opinion, the batsmen who guard their wicket the best will win here. The bowlers will have help almost all through. So the onus will be on the batting units to do that extra bit.

Before the Third Test at Edgbaston, India will play a two-day practice match against Northamptonshire. It will give a chance for reassessment of strategies, testing bench strength and recovering niggles. Therefore, I expect the best contest of this series to take place at Edgbaston, Birmingham (the 2003rd Test match, all the hype around the 2000th notwithstanding)... and yes, I expect a result here too.

A lot of people, including some English cricket followers, say that The Oval Test will result in a draw, making it two out of two draws in London. However, if Sehwag gets into the team and acclimatises himself by then, I wouldn't be surprised to see a result there too. With Sehwag's inclusion, the 'time factor' in a Test match has a different context attached to it, whether or not he clicks. If you don't believe me, ask Graeme Smith in the context of Cape Town 2011!

Now don't ask me to predict a series result. Since I have predicted three match results, the most likely scenario would be 2-1 either way. I would be very surprised if it goes 3-0 one way or the other!

In the build-up to this series, I have been surprised by the fact that there has been very little comparison drawn to this tour with the South African tour late last year. Or maybe there have been enough parallels drawn, but I expected more!

For one, both series' have put India's title as No. 1 Test team in the world on line. After all, a 2-0 or a 3-1 win for England will propel them to the top! Apart from that, India goes in to the First Tests not well acclimatised, though we did have the luxury of a tour match this time round! India will yet again be facing a bowling attack that can be considered superior to theirs in conditions of the hosts. The batting units of both the hosts are similar and in form too. Both hosts want to test the Indian batting of fast surfaces. And as if all this were not enough, the captains of both the hosts are left-handed openers, whom Zaheer Khan would love to bowl at!

However, unlike the result in South Africa, I am hoping for an Indian victory over here. I don't know how many will agree, but I think the English in England are a slightly easier prospect than the South Africans in South Africa! The added experience of having won the Test series on their previous tour here should help the Indians along. England, on the other hand, have not beaten India in a Test series since 1996 - the same series where Ganguly and Dravid famously debuted together.

So as the Test match no. 2000 descends upon us tomorrow, with an equally-enticing prospect of Tests no. 2001, 2003 and 2004, I am just delighted to be amongst those who will have the privilege of watching it live. I may well get the chance to watch the 3000th and maybe even the 4000th, but the first milestone is always the most special one. And given the surroundings and the setup of the 2000th, it will be hard for the future 1000s to beat this one. Lord's, we are waiting...

THE ARCHITECTS OF THE WIN

I have been planning this blog for a week now, but just did not get the time to do it because of a distraction in the form of ICC's stupid decision to shut the Associates / Affiliates out of the 2015 World Cup. While that is a ridiculous decision, I will not be focusing any more on that. Instead, I will be talking in brief about the 5 men who, in my opinion, formed the backbone of India's win at the World Cup 2011.

I have listed these men in the order of importance, in my opinion:

1. Zaheer Khan
2. Yuvraj Singh
3. Gautam Gambhir
4. Sachin Tendulkar
5. Mahendra Singh Dhoni

Here are a few thoughts about each one of these men:

ZAHEER KHAN

In my view, Zaheer Khan is the reason India stood a chance of winning the World Cup, and actually won it! The joint-leading wicket-taker at 21 wickets in the World Cup with Pakistani skipper Shahid Afridi, Zak did not have a single 4- or 5-wicket haul in the World Cup. What does this tell you about him? He was consistent.

Indeed, amongst the bowlers who took 15 or more wickets in the World Cup, only Zaheer Khan and Tim Southee took at least 1 wicket in each match they played. To analyse further, Zak took at least 2 wickets in 8 of the 9 matches he played in - the only one in which he got only 1 wicket was the only match that India lost - against South Africa (though I do feel the urge to mention here that that wicket was of his bunny Graeme Smith)!

He held India's bowling together, and got wickets almost whenever the match seemed to be getting away from India's grip. His slower knuckle ball was almost impossible to read and was very effective against the left-handed batsmen. And not to forget, his reverse swing was phenomenal - that pinpoint reverse swinging yorker to nail Andrew Strauss LBW allowed India to come back and earn a tie in that match, which seemed to have completely gone out of hand.

An average of 18.76 and an economy rate of 4.83, accompanied by 4 maidens (3 of which came in his first spell of the World Cup Finals) tell a tale of a champion bowler. Given that he achieved all this on tracks that first assisted batsmen, then spinners and then pacers, those figures just glow brighter! He may have been a little expensive in the three knock out matches, but the value of that brilliant start in the Finals against the most prolific opening partnership of the World Cup just cannot be understated. A fast bowler, whose new-ball spell figures in a World Cup Finals read 5 overs - 3 maidens - 6 runs - 1 wicket, is someone special!

India could have won this World Cup with one batsman less, one spinner less, maybe even one man in the XI less... but never with one Zaheer Khan less!

YUVRAJ SINGH

Man of the Tournament! This cricketer was struggling for form, fitness and possibly even inspiration for the better part of 2010. He lost his place in the Indian squad in both forms of the game, fell prey to injuries, and was criticised by almost everyone, myself included. But despite this criticism, I am happy to say that I never lost faith in his match-winning abilities. I still have in record on my Google Buzz the reply I had written to a friend who had asked me why I though Yuvraj Singh was so important to India's World Cup cause long before the World Cup had begun (I think it was even before the South Africa tour, not sure)!

On pure potential alone, he is arguably amongst India's finest match-winners in the limited overs version of the game. And this was with the bat alone! But the way his bowling came along in this World Cup eased India's bowling worries in a HUGE manner. Out of his 15 wickets, the first 7 came against the non-Test playing Ireland and Netherlands, but the next 8 came against all former World Champions - 2 each against West Indies (Chennai), Australia (Ahmedabad), Pakistan (Mohali) and Sri Lanka (Mumbai).

Batting-wise, he started the tournament cautiously and acknowledged as such (when he won the Man of the Match against Ireland) that he was still not finding the fluency to be able to score at run-a-ball. But it came good and at its best over the past 2 years in a do-or-die knock out run chase in the Quarter Finals against Australia, where he guided India to a win in a tricky run chase.

To me, the most heartening aspect of his knock there was the way he guided Suresh Raina in that unbroken partnership, which started when the hopes had again started dwindling. Raina was looking nervous when he entered... he was sledged a bit by Shaun Tait... and attacked with bouncers at ferocious pace. And unnoticed by a lot of people, Yuvraj Singh kept on talking to Suresh Rania whenever he looked edgy, and it was almost a kind-of reminder to the Chennai Test of 2008 against England, where Tendulkar had played the elder-brother role to Yuvraj Singh in a difficult, yet successful, run chase (given that he had been 'sledged out' in the first innings).

This was clearly Yuvraj 2.0, a newer and more mature version, who gathered 4 Man of the Match trophies, and broke down when it dawned on him that India had won the World Cup. When Harbhajan Singh cried in the finals, it did not make a lot of difference to me. But when I saw Yuvraj Singh sobbing uncontrollably into Sachin Tendulkar's left shoulder, I became teary-eyed myself. This fellow has etched his name in history, and deservedly so!

GAUTAM GAMBHIR

Ian Chappell was of the opinion that Gambhir did not fit into the Indian XI. He was made to eat humble pie when Gambhir ended up being just 3 runs short of what could arguably have been a World Cup Finals Man-of-the-Match winning performance.

But before talking about his wonderful innings in the Finals, one must not forget the very vital contribution he made to India's successful chase against Australia in the Quarter Finals at Ahmedabad. A fine knock of 50 runs before his recurrent problem of running between the wickets came back to haunt him, and had him run out on the third attempt! His partnership with Virat Kohli in that match, though short-lived, was one of the highlights of that chase for me, simply because of the ease with which these two youngsters milked the Australian bowling around!

And now the last knock of 97. Just take in the situation - World Cup Finals, 0 for 1, opposition completely charged up with momentum, Sehwag out, a difficult chase, immense pressure, a quality fast bowler to face first up - that was no place for the weak-hearted!

For a major part of 2010, Gambhir too, like Yuvraj, was suffering from some injuries and a little bit of dip in form. Voices calling for his ouster from the team had grown from faint whispers to buzzing murmurs. A couple hundreds against the visiting Kiwis helped get his form back, and a couple of solid knocks in Tests in South Africa in extremely difficult conditions against the best bowling attack in the world, must have helped build a lot of confidence.

Four half-centuries and the second-highest run-scorer for India in a successful World Cup campaign, with a BIG role in the victory in World Cup finals was a deserving result. At Wankhede, the standout part of his innings was the way he resisted his urge to go inside out over the cover region to the three Sri Lankan off-spinners after he had been let off once early in the innings to that stroke. He saw that Sangakkara had set a very intelligent field for that very shot, with a straight-ish deep extra cover and a long off. That shot must have still been very tempting because of the three off-spinners in operation and the fact that it has been very productive for him in the past. But he resisted - he swept, he paddle-swept, he did a lot of things that he doesn't normally do (like dive in to make his ground on a tight second run) - but he stayed in there till the match was quite comfortably in India's reach!

One couldn't have asked for more from him at No. 3 for India. He consolidated and he attacked when least expected, both with great success. And though a few experts kept shaking their head in disapproval on his selection, he made sure that he had the last laugh!

SACHIN TENDULKAR

482 runs, second-highest run-scorer in the World Cup, highest for India, strike rate of 92, 2 centuries and 2 fifties, and the most sixes hit by an Indian in this World Cup (8) - all this just before turning 38 years of age. In his record-equaling 6th World Cup appearance, a winner's medal was what he deserved and what he achieved!

His centuries may be remembered for the wrong reasons of non-winning causes, but do not play down the mastery in their construction. In both those hundreds, Sachin Tendulkar decided to take the attack to the opponent's best bowler. At Bangalore, he blasted two consecutive sixes off Graeme Swann's first two balls of a new spell to send a signal to Strauss that his best bowler means nothing to him! At Nagpur, he pulled a Dale Steyn bouncer for a six to backward square leg to tell him that his pace and ferocity meant nothing and that he could be easily blunted! It is a pity, a real shame, that both these matches were not won by India, for these hundreds deserved to be called match-winning ones for their sheer quality.

In the Quarter Finals against Australia, his 53 might look a moderate score, but it was the second-highest in India's innings, bettered only by Yuvraj Singh's winning hit for 4 that moved him to 57*. He gave India a brisk start and held fort with Gambhir after Sehwag fell relatively early in that chase. His attack on Shaun Tait in his very first over sent his radar wayward, which eventually proved to be a pressure-releasing factor for India in a lot of crunch moments later in the match.

In the Semi Finals against Pakistan, his only Man-of-the-Match performance in this World Cup, he scored an error-strewn 85 aided by five lives. Irrespective of the manner of those runs, it was his innings and that of Suresh Raina's at the end that eventually proved to be the difference between the two sides. In the final analysis, Sachin Tendulkar and Misbah-ul-Haq had very similar strike rates, but the superiority with which Tendulkar paced his innings despite the obvious discomfort in picking Ajmal's spin proved to be a crucial factor at the end.

He may have failed in the Finals, with just 18 runs off 12 balls... but he did provide early indication as to which bowler will be the easiest to attack for India. And that glorious straight drive off Nuwan Kulasekara was one for the ages! This man will stop scoring consistently only on The Judgement Day!

MAHENDRA SINGH DHONI

A lot of times in the past, MS Dhoni has been praised by the 'experts' for even his smallest and most insignificant of moves. A lot of times in the past, I have just brushed these comments aside and as I always do, formed my own opinion with my perspective. But on the night of 2nd April 2011, it was all very different! On that night, Mahendra Singh Dhoni played a knock that will be fondly placed as one of the very best in limited overs cricket under ENORMOUS pressure in the annals of not only Indian cricket, but also the World Cup cricket.

Had he not promoted himself over Yuvraj Singh to play the trio of Sri Lankan off-spinners, I may not even have placed his name in this list. But that sharp bit of captaincy followed by a knock of immense maturity, devoid of a single careless shot, has gained MS Dhoni an entry into this and numerous other lists. The surreal clam with which he hoisted the winning six will be replayed over and over again in every household of the myriad communities in India, for nothing less than that kind of a shot would have been worthy of sealing India's historical win and Dhoni's name in a list of all-time great captains of the world!

In the euphoria of the win at Wankhede, it was very easy to forget Dhoni's contribution as a captain in the other knockout matches, especially the Quarter Finals against Australia at Ahmedabad. I have never seen Dhoni attack so much in the field in an ODI as he did against Australia on the 24th March 2011. Be it Ricky Ponting nearing his century or a rusty Cameron White, MS Dhoni was relentless in applying enormous pressure to their batsmen. An eventual score of 260 was in a big way, the result of some fine captaincy by Dhoni.

In the semi-finals too, against Pakistan, Dhoni did well to attack the batsmen in the middle overs. In this match, his attack was not focussed on taking wickets. Rather, he set his close fields very close, and his deep fields very deep, to ensure that the boundaries as well as singles are minimised. Since Pakistan is not reputed for athleticism, the chances of conceding a lot of twos was minimal. And the introduction of Harbhajan Singh to grab the wicket of Umar Akmal was a vindication of captain's gut feel!

An average World Cup with the bat, illuminated by an innings of abnormal calm and composure in the Finals, MS Dhoni has finally helped India get hold of the biggest prize that limited overs cricket has to offer - after 28 years of long and sometimes agonising wait!

THE WIN IS SINKING IN

The last 2 days have been surreal. So much so that this is my fourth attempt to write a blog after India's win... and after deleting the first 3 drafts, I have decided that I will publish this one even if it does not really explain the things that are in my head.

I will go through the thoughts that erupted in my head as the day went by - the day being 2nd April 2011!

After almost a sleepless night, I got up unusually early and read everything that Cricinfo and other blogs that I follow had to offer. There was no way of getting back to sleep (which had been less even in the run up to the finals), so I thought I might as well get up and be ready in the lucky t-shirt that I wear for every India match.

Yes, God really was with us!

On the previous day, I had seen the weather forecast for this match and read that there will be wind (or rather, breeze) of 14 - 16 kmph from the west. When I had read this, I was of the opinion that Sreesanth should get a chance as the breeze will be from the direction of the sea and the moisture in that sea air will help him more than any other bowler. In fact, this also made me a bit wary of how Kulasekara would perform, for he can get some very good swing when there is assistance.

But when the telecast began, and Harsha Bhogle had a chat with those present at the Wankhede Stadium, I realised that there was no breeze at all. Not one bit! The shirts and ties of the men there were not moving an millimeter. And my thoughts changed immediately. In these conditions, R Ashwin was a shoo in for me.

When the toss happened, it was frustrating. But what surprised me was that even MS Dhoni showed his frustration. There was a very perfunctory shake of hands with Sangakkara before he turned his back to him in what was obvious show of dissatisfaction. That kind of convinced me that Dhoni must have won the first toss, but as it later turned out, it was Sangakkara indeed who had won both the tosses. So all well here!

I was disappointed slightly by the fact that India would have had to bowl first, yet confident that India will be able to restrict Sri Lanka to less than 260, a score which I thought India should be able to chase keeping in my mind the occasion.

Zaheer Khan started brilliantly. Even Sreesanth started fairly, despite his second ball no-ball. When Sehwag caught Tharanga, for a moment, I was under the impression that the ball had reached him on the bounce, and then I saw Zaheer celebrating with his arms spread. And I celebrated too, because the statistically best opening partnership of the World Cup had been broken.

Dilshan briefly threatened to shine, before he succumbed to the pressure created due to tight bowling and amazing fielding. Fielding! Oh my word! To see Yuvraj Singh make that flying stop off a Dilshan drive through the off-side was a throwback to the era of Ganguly's captaincy. It almost felt as if we had the younger version of Yuvraj Singh back in the team, and it was great to watch that.

When the Sangakkara-Jayawardene partnership was flourishing, I felt that Dhoni should have brought back Zaheer Khan. His famous knuckle ball works a lot better with left-handers and Sangakkara was definitely looking the more dangerous of the two then. Eventually, he was unlucky to fall to a long hop from Yuvraj Singh, who again bowled better than what is expected out of a fifth bowler.

I was a bit disappointed to see Zaheer Khan leak runs at the end... moreover because he was genuinely bowling bad balls for that period. There were too many length balls and they were taken full toll of. A target of 275 did make me wary, but there was still confidence in the team that had chased tougher targets without a full-strength team over the past one year.

During that short 20-minute break, I had texted a friend that in my opinion, Sachin Tendulkar, Gautam Gamhir and Virat Kohli would be the main men in the chase. Later on, I also added Yuvraj Singh to the list. I chose SRT for the occasion, GG for his brilliant play against the spin, VK for his tremendous record in chases, and Yuvi for the obvious reason - his current form and confidence!

Sehwag's dismissal disappointed me, but did not dishearten me. I was not expecting much from him due to his poor second-innings record, but a contribution greater than 0 would definitely have helped! Sachin's dismissal shook me... not the confidence of a win, but the realisation that it was not exactly going to be a fairytale if we got there. Though it was a tense situation then, I still had the confidence in the team.

The next 4 batsmen vindicated my confidence in them, and each one played a knock to remember. Gambhir was brilliant. It was a solid knock paced beautifully. He was given a reprieve when Kulasekara did not catch a difficult chance when he was on 30, but what Gambhir did after that was very impressive.

Gambhir loves playing the inside out shot over extra cover to spinners, and Sangakkara had set up a trap for him there by placing a very straight-ish deep extra cover, along with a long off. After getting that reprieve, he did not attempt that shot again even once, even though he must have been very tempted to given the fact that he faced three off-spinners. He even played a conventional sweep, and I don't remember seeing him play that too many times in his entire career. He changed his game a little bit to suit the occasion, and he deserves all the accolades for that!

Virat Kohli continued to show cool head and maturity in a tricky chase under pressure. Even though he was beaten on that ball, but his dismissal was still more on account of a brilliant work by a Sri Lankan rather than him making a mistake. I would have to see him get a 50, just as I would have loved to see Gambhir getting his 100, but well, I am satisfied with the World Cup!

When Kohli was dismissed, I felt a little wobbly for the reasons that have now been discussed and dissected everywhere. I was uncertain about Yuvraj Singh coming in to face three off-spinners. And I was also uncertain about the running between the wickets of Gambhir and Yuvraj Singh together, who had had a series of mishaps in the game against Australia before Gambhir lost his wicket.

So I was quite okay to see MS Dhoni coming out to bat despite his bad form. A couple of hours later, he proved to the world that that particular move was a masterstroke from him, and played a very mature knock to guide India home. Yuvraj's assistance was also very good. There was a point after India had taken the batting powerplay when Yuvraj played 4 dot balls from Malinga. That was the moment Sri Lanka would have felt that Yuvraj is susceptible to a rash stroke. But he very coolly managed a 2 and a 1 from the next two balls to finish the over, and India knew that the Cup will soon be ours.

That winning six brought about different emotions in me. Watching alone at my house, I gave Dhoni and the team a long round of applause. But what was really touching to see was the emotions that came out then. Yuvraj in tears, unashamedly in tears! Harbhajan sobbing uncontrollably. Dhoni's twirl of the bat and then hopping madly to get a stump before Yuvraj could reach him. Kohli, Raina and Yusuf Pathan carrying Sachin Tendulkar on their shoulders around the ground. The joy that was so clearly etched in Gary Kirsten's face. And then the smile of Sachin Tendulkar himself. Those were images that I am going to remember forever, and when I say forever, I mean it!

Ashish Nehra - awkward bowling action, awkward victory celebration!

After having fantasised about this moment for almost over a year now, I just did not know how to react, and I guess the members of Team India felt the same! I felt proud to be witnessing this moment, and not just proud because I am a fan of Indian cricket team, no! That would kill my joy!

I was proud of that moment in Indian cricket because I have supported Indian cricket team even through its darkest hours, like the World Cup 2007. I have had faith in these men and boys, and I have always wished for them to perform. There have been some players I have liked more than others, a lot of decisions from the captain that I have criticised, and I will continue doing so. I have and will continue pointing out shortcomings of certain players, and loopholes in our team. But through all this, I have never stopped supporting the team through its turbulent times, nor will I ever do so. I take pride in this fact!

For me, this triumph was also a vindication of the faith shown by me and many other cricket fans in our cricket team when there was criticism heaped upon them. We believed in our team when men like Steve Waugh and Allan Border tipped Sri Lanka to win the finals. We believed in our team when men like Dean Jones said that "Dhoni must be dreaming if he thinks that he can win the World Cup with a team like this". He has not been heard from since the night of 2nd April 2011.

Darren Gough had said after the Ashes win that England can beat India any day of the week. We will continue to believe in our team when we tour England later this year. We will continue to believe in our team when England visit India after that. We will continue to believe!

Thank you, Team India for giving the nation this wonderful victory. I place it as the biggest win in the history of Indian cricket for two reasons: A) It was achieved in the claustrophobic pressure of enormous expectations, whereas the 1983 triumph as well as the 2007 World Twenty20 triumph came when there was nothing expected from the team; B) I was born in 1988 - unable to witness the glory of 1983, so this will remain, to me, India's greatest cricketing triumph till date.

As I run out of thoughts, I would just like to say how glad I am to see the Indian team celebrate the win, and how overwhelming it is to see, as his fan, Sachin Tendulkar get a chance to lift that trophy. The respect that he has from his teammates was wonderful to see. Virat Kohli became the darling of a nation when he delivered the quote of the World Cup: "He (Sachin Tendulkar) has carried the burden of the nation for 21 years; it was time we carried him." Who cares about what Imran Khan had said earlier - that if he were Tendulkar, he would be embarrassed by all this mention of "We want to win it for Sachin" dialogue. To hear this statement coming from a man who talked only about his personal ambitions and failed to mention even a word about his team in his victory speech as a World Cup winning captain in 1992 is a blasphemy. It was also great to see how Sachin Tendulkar celebrated the win with his fan, and read about how the team's family time in the dressing room.

Well done, Sri Lanka and congratulations, India!

QUARTER FINALS PROBABILITIES - INDIAN PERSPECTIVE

Pakistan bowled exceptionally well to lay the foundation of their win over Australia at Colombo, ending Australia 34-match winning streak in World Cup matches. For the second match in a row, Australia (and Ricky Ponting) was confronted with the fact that their bowling attack can come undone quite easily when put under pressure. Brett Lee performed like a big-hearted champion that he is, but that's it... can't say anything more about the Australian bowling attack! It might have a brilliant day, or a disastrous day! Three consecutive brilliant days look difficult to me from hereon.

With this win, Pakistan top Group A. The standings of the Quarter finalists from Group A are:

1. Pakistan - 10 points

2. Sri Lanka - 9 points

3. Australia - 9 points

4. New Zealand - 8 points

Since we know South Africa is the Group B topper, one Quarterfinal has been fixed - South Africa v. New Zealand at Mirpur, Dhaka on either 23rd March or 25th March. I suspect it will be the 23rd March for them.

From an Indian perspective, a win against the West Indies will see them in the 2nd place, a loss will see them in the 3rd place and a heavy loss will see them in the 4th place (example - if West Indies bat first, score 250, and bowl India out for 92, India will have NRR lower than that of England and will be placed 4th).

So from an Indian point of view, it is possible that we might play any one of Australia, Sri Lanka and Pakistan in the Quarter Finals, though Australia is the most likely one and Pakistan is the most unlikely one. Lets look at each of the possible fixtures in detail:

(Note: We all know India's weaknesses very well, so I won't glean over them again as I look at the possible Quarter Finals fixtures below. I will concentrate of the strengths and weaknesses of the opponents.)

INDIA v. AUSTRALIA

If India win against West Indies (which we should), India will meet Australia in the 2nd quarter-final at Ahmedabad's Sardar Patel Stadium. It will be a tricky clash. Australia is a very strong team, but with their own set of weaknesses. Their pace bowling attack, on which they heavily rely, is quite combustible. With their pace, they will almost certainly target Sehwag and Gambhir with short stuff, but the former needs just a little bit of waywardness in line (very possible due to the presence of Tait and Johnson) while the latter will need just a little bit of patience to counter them.

Apart from the 30 overs of pace, Australia's bowling attack is not a lot to talk about. Watson is handy, but can be milked. Krejza can be attacking, but I would place my money on the Indian batsmen attacking him more and pulling it off well. Smith will also be facing genuinely good players of spin bowling for the first time.

In their batting, Watson is certain to get them off to a good start, but just as certain to not capitalise on that start. Haddin has been inconsistent and Ponting consistent in his failures. He will also have to face Harbhajan Singh, whose bowling becomes interesting every time the batsman facing him has a last name 'Ponting'. Clarke has been in decent form and plays spin well, while Michael Hussey is their best batsman of spin bowling. White is desperately out of form, and if David Hussey plays in his place, it will be his first bat in almost a month.

Australia played a match at Ahmedabad against Zimbabwe, where they scratched their way to a win and a damaged TV set. All in all, they are definitely beatable, but yet I am wary of them, simply because of the fight that they have in them. Not for nothing are they the top-ranked team in ODIs in the world even today!

But when I think of it differently, had Australia won today against Pakistan, India would have met them in the semi-finals at Mohali. I'd much rather have an India v. Australia game at Ahmedabad than Mohali, for Mohali is more likely to support their pace, despite the pitch there having slowed down over the years.

INDIA v. SRI LANKA

If India lose to West Indies (not too badly), then we will play Sri Lanka in the Quarter Finals. Sri Lanka is a very strong team when they play at home... but don't have a record to talk about when they play India in India. Despite the similarity in conditions, Sri Lanka somehow manages to create a fortress at home and look at sea in India.

A lot of people with whom I have conversed personally or on Twitter reckon that Sri Lanka will be a tough opposition, and India would be better off facing Australia. I don't know why... I still think Sri Lanka will not be much trouble.

Their batting is based around Dilshan, Sangakkara and Jayawardene. The rest of it looks quite brittle. Their bowling trump card against India would be Malinga. I know Muralitharan is a legend, but Indian batsmen have the ability to face him out, milking him for a few. Where need arises, batsmen like Sehwag and Gambhir can attack him quite well. Having said all this, I also think that our openers will need to be careful against Kulasekara's first spell, especially if we bat under lights. He can nip the ball in to the pads, and Sehwag is prone to losing balance by playing across the line and get LBW.

India has beaten Sri Lanka a number of times in the recent past at home even with our several first choice players (mainly Sachin Tendulkar) absent. Now with Tendulkar in such a rich vein of form, I doubt we'll have a lot of trouble against them. The team should not be complacent facing them, but they will certainly be high on confidence if they have to face Sri Lanka at Ahmedabad.

INDIA v. PAKISTAN

The mother of all clashes! Indo-Pak World Cup clashes are stuff of folklore! Expect nothing different if this clash does happen!

If India lose heavily to West Indies, so much so that our NRR dips below England's, then we play Pakistan in the Quarter Finals. Honestly, in my opinion, this should be India's best Quarter Final fixture if it happens. I'll tell you the reasons why I'll be very comfortable with the prospect of India facing Pakistan in QFs -

A. India will be coming off a heavy defeat, and will be more motivated to turn the tide.

B. Pakistan will be coming off a very impressive win over Australia, and will be prone to complacency. We all know that they are a highly inconsistent team, and after a great performance against Australia, a shoddy one is round the corner.

C. Pakistan will play with the additional pressure of 4-0... the history books say that in the 4 Indo-Pak World Cup matches, India has won all 4!

D. While Umar Gul with the new ball will be a difficult prospect, Pakistan's bowling gameplan in this World Cup has relied heavily on Afridi's performance. Against India, it will be difficult for Afridi to perform, given how every batsman in India loves facing a spinner (not so much for Yuvraj Singh, but even he would prefer a leg spinner to an off spinner).

E. If this fixture does result, it may well be all about who handles the pressure better. India has a lot more experience in their ranks, and men who will not be flustered by the opposition.

However, since this clash is extremely unlikely to happen, I won't write anything more about it.

THE LAST WORD

Even though I feel Australia will be the trickiest opposition for the QFs, I still feel that India should go all out against the West Indies tomorrow and play for a win rather than a strategic loss. India needs to get some confidence in their system after the close loss to South Africa, and also need to find the right winning combination. However, even if we manage only a scratchy performance against the West Indies, I won't be too disappointed... I will just hope that all the scratchiness is out of the system and come the Quarter Finals, India will be ready to show a different side of the team!

THE CENTURION TEST

The anticipation is almost palpable now. For both the Tests that start tomorrow... particularly South Africa v India at SuperSport Park, Centurion. I just hope that the Gods don't decide to pour water all over the show.

Since I have already done a preview (sort of) of the Perth Test, this one will focus on the Centurion one. The match starts on 16th December 2010. This day - the 16th of December - holds special memories for Indian Test cricket fans. Exactly 7 years ago, on 16th December 2003, India defeated a world-beating Steve Waugh-led Australia at Adelaide and announced to the world that lousy visitors we are no more!

It marked the start of a new era. Some may argue that this era began with the victory in England in 2002 itself... when we showed that we are capable of winning Tests in alien conditions as well. But the Adelaide win was way beyond just a win... it was a celebrated milestone, and India has not looked back since then.

Though there are question marks now over the spot of the chief architect of that win (viz. Rahul Dravid), there can be no denying that he would want to erase those question marks with a strong match and series winning performance in South Africa... along with his contemporaries Sachin Tendulkar and VVS Laxman. The desire is almost a desperation now... and when such stalwarts are desperate, you know that something's bound to give!

On the other hand, South Africa is also aware of the importance of this series... and they know that a series win against India is the biggest step (almost a leap) that they can take in their desire of regaining the mantle of No. 1 Test team in the world. If the ICC Rankings are disconsidered for a moment, then there are a lot of people in the world who hold the belief that the South Africans are the real No. 1 team in the Test world. But India has an opportunity to shake this belief... to destroy this notion and firmly establish themselves as the best cricket team in whites.

The weather has been very wet in this build up to the First Test. There are chances that a lot of play will be lost on most of the days. So whereas I was initially hoping that India should bat first (simply because Gambhir - Sehwag v Steyn - Morkel is THE BATTLE of the series), now I hope otherwise. Batting first under cloudy skies with wetness in the pitch will be extremely difficult against the South African pace attack... just as it will be difficult for Smith, Peterson, Amla, Kallis, De Villiers and Prince against the Indian pace attack minus Zaheer Khan.

Zaheer's loss may have a telling effect, but the best that India could have hoped for in Zaheer's absence was for helpful conditions to assist the likes of Sreesanth, Ishant Sharma and Unadkat / Yadav (I believe that it will be the former who makes the cut tomorrow). If India does bowl first under overcast skies, that should compensate well enough for Zaheer's absence.

Talking about Zaheer, its only apt that we drop a line of two about Zaheer's potential replacement for the match as well. I would like to see Jaidev Unadkat make his debut tomorrow... and given how this 19-year old had performed six months back in his first-class debut at Leicester with a 13-for, I will definitely be hoping for another impressive performance on his Test debut. He (or Umesh Yadav) will be the 267th Test player for India... but I guess Unadkat will be the first teammate of Sachin Tendulkar who would have been born after the master made his debut over 21 years ago (he has played AGAINST youngsters who were born after his debut... I can recall Mohammed Aamer during the ODI match against Pakistan during the Champions Trophy last year).

Sorry for digressing... but now that I have brought up the topic of Sachin Tendulkar, there has to be a mention of the eagerly-awaited 50th Test ton also. Another feather in that cap, which must weigh a ton now!

On that note, I end this preview... and lets hope that we witness a cracking start to the blockbuster contest tomorrow.

GLAD FOR GAUTAM GAMBHIR

It was good to see Gautam Gambhir back in the runs with a big century... the icing on the cake was that he did this as a captain!

After a record-breaking season and a half for Gambhir, he has struggled this year for his runs. He has also not been helped by regular occurrence of injuries and some shoddy umpiring (remember Billy Bowden's howler!?). But in the Tests against New Zealand, he showed that he is slowly getting his form back... and now in the 2nd ODI, he hit a wonderful 138* to send out a string message to those who were thinking of handing his spot over to Murali Vijay.

I am delighted for Gambhir. I have mentioned earlier that it took me time to warm up to Gautam Gambhir, but over his purple patch (particularly that marathon match-saving century at Napier) I saw that he's a changed man from the one I had seen make his debut in 2004. He had improved beyond recognition.

When he was going through that purple patch, I knew that a bad patch would come. Runs will dry up. It happens to everyone, just as it may soon happen to Sachin Tendulkar and Virender Sehwag (though I always hope not!). But having had a changed opinion of Gambhir now, I was confidently hoping that he'll find his way out of th mire.

His 138* today was not the perfect innings. There were a couple of streaky inside edges that went either side of the stumps... and there was a bit of impatience at the start. But once all those start-of-an-innings-jitters were out of the way, his innings was as good as they get in One Day International cricket. No doubt his counterpart Daniel Vettori describe it as "one of the best one-day innings I have ever seen"!

There was the 5th ball of the 33rd over bowled by Kyle Mills, when Gambhir shimmied down the track looking to create room but got cramped up as Mills followed him. Yet he had so much time even after coming a couple of paces down to a pacer that he comfortably guided the ball to the right of point, wide of the third man, to pick up an easy 2 and move from 91 to 93. It almost looked as if Gambhir paused and decided that this was the place he wanted to play the ball to, and then played it. It looked so comfortable that I immediately felt that yes, this man has returned to form.

It was a great knock by the Indian captain and as I end this blog, I must also mention a special word for the young Virat Kohli. He's been quite a bit like Gambhir for me... took a bit of time to warm up to him... but he's impressed with his maturity at the crease. Though there is still a lot that he needs to prove, there is no doubt that he's taking all the right steps.

GAMBHIR TICKS THE UNCHECKED BOX

The first South Africa - India Test match starts in just a couple of weeks from today at the SuperSport Park, Centurion... and in the lead up to that Test match, it is great to see Gautam Gambhir get a century against New Zealand today. He was the only unticked box remaining in our top and middle order.

Virender Sehwag - He is in roaring form... second highest run scorer in this calender year (2010)... and could be the key for India's series win in the Rainbow Nation. Back to the land where he embarked on his journey in Test cricket, there are high expectations of him this time round. With the pace that the South African attack can generate, his fiery slashes may carry all the way over the third man boundary!

Gautam Gambhir - It was good to see him get some runs against the Kiwis. He did get lucky with a couple of streaky inside edges... but the crucial thing is that he capitalised on the luck. And once he got closer to three figures, he looked as comfortable as he's looked this entire year. Surely the signs are good for the Indian opening partnership...

Rahul Dravid - Though I am not completely confident about his form and indeed his place in the side, but it cannot be denied that he did get 2 centuries in Tests against New Zealand. That is bound to give him some confidence before the South African tour. But if I were MS Dhoni, I would still tell Cheteshwar Pujara to be on standby mode... just in case!

Sachin Tendulkar - Though the New Zealand series was not that productive, it cannot be denied that he is looking in ominous form. He will be facing South Africa in any form of cricket for the first time after the history-making 200* (147) at Gwalior. This time he'll have a chance to make another history... No. 50 is waiting... will it be SuperSport Park, Centurion, where he had smashed the Pakistanis into submission at a World Cup just under 8 years ago?

VVS Laxman - The South Africa tour will be a difficult one. There will be times when that brilliant bowling attack will put the Indian batting unit under immense pressure. And that will be the time when we'll again look towards Lax to bail us out... for he's a crunch-situation specialist. It will be interesting to see the fields that Graeme Smith sets for VVS.

The anticipation is building up for the clash of No. 1 against the No. 2. I know that a lot of neutrals will follow the Ashes more religiously that this one... but I think that this series will be a lot more interesting and the mini-battles a lot more absorbing. Obviously, this feeling may have come (or may have been strengthened) by the 22-wickets-over-5-days draw at The Gabba and the prospect of another such match at Adelaide next.

So I can't wait for December 16th to arrive... it's time to see the best in action!

RANDOM FACTS AT THE END OF DAY 3

1. This was Sachin Tendulkar's 8th dismissal in the nineties in Test cricket... taking him to the 4th position alongside Kallicharran (WI) and Inzamam (Pak) in the all time list of most dismissals in the 90s behind Dravid (10), Steve Waugh (10) and Michael Slater (9).

2. Tendulkar also has 17 dismissals in his 90s in ODI cricket and 1 other occasion when he remained not out in his 90s. In One Day Cricket, this 18 occasions of being stranded in the 90s is a comfortable World Record... way ahead of 2nd-placed Grant Flower (Zim), Aravinda De Silva (SL) and Nathan Astle (NZ) at 9. Amusingly, Sachin would have had 52 tons in Tests and 55 in ODIs had he converted even half of his forays to the nineties into 100s!

3. On Day 2, Virendra Sehwag scored a fifty... and as a result, he has now managed a 50+ score in each of his last 11 Tests... a world record he jointly holds now with Sir Viv Richards (WI) and Gautam Gambhir (Ind). Gambhir had a chance to break Viv's record against South Africa at Nagpur earlier this year, but he failed. Will Viru go one better at Bangalore against the Aussies?

4. Sachin Tendulkar is not behind the above trio... he's now scored a 50+ score in each of his last 9 Tests. In fact, Sachin has scored a 50+ score in 17 of his last 19 Tests (starting from the match in which he surpassed Brian Lara... at the same ground and against the same opposition as he is playing now). What a phenomenal time he is having!

5. On Day 2, Zaheer Khan's 5-wicket haul was the 100th instance of a 5-for being recorded in an India-Australia Test match. Mitchell Johnson's 5-64 becomes 101st.

6. Mitchell Johnson is now the 8th highest wicket taker for Australia against India in Tests (34 wickets). Amongst the top 10 for Australia against India, Johnson has the 2nd worst average (32.79) after Shane Warne (43 @ 47.18)!

7. This is the 2nd time in 3 Tests that Marcus North has gotten a batsman out in his 90s. He got Salman Butt (Pak) stumped on 92 at Lord's before getting Sachin Tendulkar lbw today on 98.

INDIA'S TEST BATTING - THE FOUNDATION OF NO. 1 SPOT

Whenever MS Dhoni's One Day team puts in disastrous performances like the one that was witnessed today, I like to think about out Test team... just to lighten up my dark mood!

So today, I decided to do a bit of number-searching. Here's what I found - India's performance in last 25 Test matches: Win - 12, Loss - 5, Draw - 8.

I have blogged a lot about how India's bowling unit (even in Tests) is very poor, but India is till managing to hold on to the No. 1 spot on the strength of its mighty batting. I decided to search for numbers that prove my viewpoint.

In these 25 Tests, India's bowling has managed to pick up 20 opposition wickets only on 11 occasions. So it's surprising to see 12 wins in the above stats, isn't it? That 1 win without grabbing 20 wickets (we did take 19 though) came against England in Chennai, where after England's declaration on their 9th second innings wicket, Sehwag led a brutal assault on the Kevin Pietersen - led team to mastermind an unprecedented chase on the Indian soil.

Coming back to the point, have you noticed that every time that the Indian bowling unit picks up 20 wickets in a Test, our batting manages to have enough runs on the board to win the Test... 'Time' is an immaterial factor in India's batting unit - there are men who save it, there are men who waste it, and there are men who can do both of it!

This stat is a remarkable one. Though I have not checked for the other teams, I am sure not many teams will be able to boast of having won every Test in which they have picked up 20 opposition wickets. This is a testimony to the remarkable abilities of India's batting stalwarts!

On the other hand, India has lost 20 wickets in only 6 occasions in these 25 Tests. And on one of these 6 occasions, the batsmen had scored more than enough to seal a win... so India's batting has truly failed only on 5 occasions in Test cricket over 2 and a half years! It may still not be the hallmark of a Test Champion side, but which other side has managed to perform as such over the last few years!?

Sehwag, the only one to have featured in each one of these 25 matches, scores at the rate of more than 100 runs per Test match... amassing 2598 runs during this period. Four batsmen have managed more than 15 scores of 50 or above... (Laxman - 17 from 23 Tests, Sehwag - 17 from 25 Tests, Sachin 16 from 23 Tests and Gambhir 16 from 18 Tests).

Though Raina has made a promising debut (albeit on the flattest track I have seen for quite some time), I am quite uncertain about life after Sachin, Rahul and VVS. They will have a lot of learning to do... and it is not going to be easy!

Masters at what they do...

P.S.: Amidst all these numbers, you might have failed to notice that only 1 Test of India's last 25 have resulted in 20 wickets falling... and guess where it came!?
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In a stadium, which in its small history, has been known to be one of the flattest of tracks... it is the VCA Stadium (Jamtha), Nagpur against Australia!

MISSION 2011

India has used 27 players in One Day Internationals in the year 2010. And with the World Cup less than 200 days away now, the ODI unit is looking in deep trouble. Just a few spots are cemented... so one can safely say that a lot of construction work will need to be undertaken.

Lets look at the men who have their places reserved in the team sheet (assuming no injury concerns in February 2011):

Openers: Virendra Sehwag, Sachin Tendulkar, Gautam Gambhir (I know GG is not in the best of nicks right now... but he is a virtual certainty for me as he can rotate the strike very well and knows how to build an innings)

Middle Order: Suresh Raina, MS Dhoni (That's it! From the best middle order in the world in Tests to no middle order at all in limited overs format)

Bowlers: Ashish Nehra, Zaheer Khan, Harbhajan Singh (I put in a lot of thought before typing down Bhajji's name... and yes, both the pacers here are very injury prone)

That leaves three in the first XI and seven more in the XV. I guess Praveen Kumar should be the first of the three vacancies to be filled up - his numbers in ODIs in 2010 read 12 wickets in 7 matches at an average of 22.50, economy of 4.82 and strike rate of 28.00. He is India's third highest wicket taker in ODIs in 2010.

The next vacancy that needs to be filled is in the middle order... where once upon a time, Yuvraj Singh was a certainty! However, his numbers in 2010 make an abysmal reading for a man of his talents. He has 101 runs from 6 ODI outings at an average of 20.20 and a strike rate of just 68.24. He faces stiff competition from Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma. One might want to add Dinesh Karthik's name here... but I am not one of his fans.

Now, like Harsha Bhogle has suggested in his latest article, if Ravindra Jadeja or Yusuf Pathan do not perform well in the ODIs that India has in the lead up to the World Cup and we do not find suitable replacements... then we might well have to use two of the three names above (Yuvraj Singh, Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma) in the middle order.

India will have to use its part-time spinners to fill up the fifth bowler's quota of ten overs... something not very unfamiliar for the team. Who are these part-timers? There is Sehwag and Raina amongst the certainties. With Tendulkar not bowling any more and Gambhir playing as a specialist batsman, the selection of the last two middle order spots might well be on the basis of the bowling abilities... and not batting.

If this is the case, then Yuvraj Singh gets a direct entry (not that he shouldn't... but he still needs to answer a lot of questions about his batting form and commitment to the team)! The other spot might go to Rohit Sharma... not that his bowling is great, but he has bowled more often than Virat Kohli (who is far away from Chris Harris' wicket taking record for New Zealand despite having a duplicate bowling action)!

The four reserves are easy to pick: Kohli gets one spot, Dinesh Karthik will get another (how I wish India should try some other keeper over these next few months just to see if there is a better option available). Going by the current investments, I guess Jadeja will make it to the fifteen and the last available spot might go to Pragyan Ojha or another seamer given the injury prone nature of our two frontline seamers.

But still, this team leaves a lot to be desired. It still does not feel like a 'World Championship' material team on current form and performance. A lot can change over the next 6 months... a lot will need to be changed!