ANOTHER THEORY ON WHY INDIA WILL WIN THE WORLD CUP!

We just love to pick on odd trivia here and there, form some sort of a connection, and form a belief that the team (in this case, India) we support will win the World Cup. I have already done two such posts here and here... and this is another one!

One of my friends pointed this out to me... all the big tournaments that Mahendra Singh Dhoni has won as a captain have had one game where his team was involved in a tie! Take a look:

2007 - 1st ICC World Twenty20 Championship - India v. Pakistan
2010 - 3rd Indian Premier League - Chennai Super Kings v. Kings XI Punjab
2010 - 2nd Champions League Twenty20 - Chennai Super Kings v. Victoria Bushrangers

So now that we have seen a Dhoni-led team tie a game in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011, we should know who will be winning it as well...

(Thank you Ali, for pointing this out to me!)

DHONI'S SUPER-MISTAKE

MS Dhoni's choice of bowler for the Super Over during yesterday's tied tie against Victoria was a surprising one. Usually, a captain gives the ball to a bowler who has had a good day. That would have been Murali, given that both Bollinger and Ashwin had had a mixed day.


However, to my mind, the best option would still have been Bollinger. Here is a bit of trivia before I proceed further:


- Cricinfo archives show that there have been 12 recorded cases of Super Overs in Twenty20 matches, including yesterday's.
- Of these 12, I managed to find out who were the bowlers and the scores involved in 11 of them.
- The 1 match that I did not manage to find anything about was the Northern Districts v. Canterbury match at Seddon Park, Hamilton on 18th February 2009.
- On a completely irrelevant note, that day (i.e. 18th February 2009) saw 2 other cases of Super Overs in South Africa - Dolphins v Cape Cobras at Kingsmead, Durban and Eagles v Warriors at St. George's Park, Port Elizabeth.
- Of the 22 Super Overs (11 X 2) I have on record, only 7 have been bowled by slow bowlers.
- Of these 7, only 2 have been won by slow bowlers. Incidentally, both these wins came when the opposition also used a slow bowler for their Super Over.
- So in the 3 cases where Super Over was a slow bowler v medium / pace bowler affair, the slower bowlers have always failed to deliver.


Now, I do not expect MS Dhoni to know these facts. But I would have expected him to learn from his mistakes. Just this year at the IPL, he had faced a Super Over situation where he chose Muttiah Muralitharan to bowl against Kings XI Punjab to defend his team's score of 9 for 2 (which were scored against Juan Theron - a medium pacer). Muralitharan managed 10 for 1 in less than 1 over as CSK lost that match and crucial points.


In the only other case of pace v spin, Ajantha Mendis had fared badly as Yusuf Pathan demolished him during IPL 2009's Rajasthan Royals v Kolkata Knight Riders match. Kamran Khan, the unheralded young Royals pacer had gone for 16 in his over as Mendis conceded 18 in his first 4 balls itself. And I expect Dhoni knew about this match.


Added to this were factors like constant drizzle and the grip on the ball during the Super Over yesterday. So Dhoni's decision to use Ashwin was pretty much a wrong one to me even before he started bowling and conceded those 20-odd runs. The match was effectively sealed then and the points secured for Victoria.

PLAYER RETENTION STRATEGIES

The player retention rules for the fourth edition of the Indian Premier League are out. So after weeks of speculation, here they are:

A. The maximum number of players that can be retained are 4.
B. The maximum number of Indian players amongst those retained can be 3, and the maximum number of Foreign Players amongst those retained can be 2.
C. Irrespective of what fee is paid to the retained players, the deduction from the total salary budget of US$ 9 million will be in the following format:
                1 Player(s) Retained - US$ 1.8 million
                2 Player(s) Retained - US$ 1.3 million
                3 Player(s) Retained - US$ 0.9 million
                4 Player(s) Retained - US$ 0.5 million

So lets say that a franchisee retains just 1 player, then irrespective of what they pay him, they can spend upto US$ 7.2 million at the auction. If they retain 2 players, their spending power will be US$ 5.9 million. It will be US$ 5.0 million if they retain 3 and US$ 4.5 million if they retain 4 players.

So what will be retaining strategy be like? In this post, I will try and look at it purely from the finance point of view (with a little bit of a reference to cricket).

The first major question that will need to be answered is that whether the player who is to be retained is really worth the amount that will be deducted from the team's budget... or whether all the players to be retained collectively are worth the total amount that will be reduced from their spending budget at the auction.

For example, Mumbai Indians should not hesitate in retaining Sachin Tendulkar and Kieron Pollard, for together they are easily worth US$ 3.1 million (if not a lot more). Chennai Super Kings have a similar state as far as the duo of MS Dhoni and Suresh Raina is concerned. Well, frankly, I am not a big fan of Dhoni and don't think he is worth much... but there is not doubt that he will be retained for his Brand Value. The entire brand marketing of Chennai's franchisee has been done around Dhoni. He is the poster boy of their team. Therefore, he will definitely be retained.

The problem will occur for the likes of Rajasthan Royals and Kings XI Punjab... I don't think anyone on their present team is worth US$ 1.8 million. Maybe Yuvraj Singh is, but then he does not want to stay at Mohali (from what has been reported).

The second consideration is that even if the teams do not retain players, they will have to spend upwards of US$ 1 million each in buying at least 2 big names that can benefit their team... maybe, even upwards of US$ 1.5 million. So it might be ideal to retain the old ones as one does not really know how high the valuation for the new ones will be, whether they will be worth it.

For example, Praveen Kumar may not justify a price tag of US$ 1.8 or 1.3 million, but it may be wiser to retain him as his price may well exceed US$ 1 million when 10 owners sit together for the bid - and - buy auction process.

The third major question, as I have already talked of in one of the examples above, is the brand-building. Chennai Super Kings have their entire brand name built around the image of Mahendra Singh Dhoni. There is no way they can let him go. No other cricketer in the league is has his brand so closely associated with that of the franchise as the Indian skipper.

And yes, finally there is the question of whether the entire team can be bought in US$ 4.5 million if a team decides to retain 4 men. We must remember that in the first ever auction, the limit for spending was up to US$ 5 million only. So there is no reason why an entire team cannot be bought for US$ 4.5 million, especially considering that in doing so the teams will be retaining their 4 main old men in their squad.

It would be interesting to see the auction process when it does take place. For the sake of the existing fans, I hope that there is not much of a reshuffle so that fan loyalties towards a particular player can be maintained. And for the sake of the fans of the two new teams, I hope they do get a chance to net in some big names who will perform for them well in the tournament.

WHO'S THE GRUMPIEST OF THEM ALL?

Found him! Ladies and Gentlemen, let me present to you the successor of Ricky Ponting as the "Grumpiest Captain in International Cricket"... the one and only... Kumar Sangakkara!

Why is it that stylish batsmen end up being grumpy captains in some way or the other? From what I know, Gavaskar was grumpy, Dravid always had a forlorn expression on his face... thank God VVS has never captained India! MSD is not grumpy, but then who ever said that he is stylish!

If there is one thing I have always noticed about Sangakkara's captaincy (apart from his extremely defensive field settings) is that he always has a complaint after a loss. Or it might just be an observation... but the way he says it, it sounds like a complaint!

I have heard numerous captains record their views about proceedings of different matches... but Ponting and Sangakkara have always had this ability to sound downright "cry babies" when their team has been in a spot of bother. After the series-leveling loss to India in the Third Test, the Lankan skipper said that Sri Lanka was still the better side in the tournament having taken more wickets and scored more runs.

For what reason was he saying this? Did he need the self-assurance that Sri Lanka played good cricket? Or did he want to induce a verbal blow on the Indians before the tri-series? Or something else?

If Sri Lanka indeed was the better team, then why did they not win the match? They had all the three tosses going for them, they had the home conditions, they had a much much stronger bowling attack with a lot of options to choose from... come to think of it - they played two completely different bowling attacks in the First and Second Tests! India, on the other hand, hampered by injuries to key personnel and Dhoni's inability to win a toss, always started on the backfoot. Yet, somehow, the team found the resolve on the back of its imperial batting lineup to square the series and share the spoils.

Then why complain? Why not just accept that India was just as good a team if not better? And this is not the first occasion that I have heard Sanga cry. He was not too different as the leader of Kings XI Punjab in IPL 2010... when his team finished 8th amongst 8 teams.

Sanga said after the match that things could have been different had Dilshan held on to the chance of Sachin Tendulkar early on Day 5. Well Sanga, things could have been different if Dhoni would have won a couple of those tosses! Things could have been different had you not been dropped a couple of times in this series! But you should know by now that these if's and but's have no place in cricket... just as they have no place in life!

Sure, other captains do wonder about how things could have been different had certain pieces of luck gone their way during a match. But I never hear them complaining and saying that theirs was the better team!

Look Punter, you have competition!

URGENTLY

In my previous posts, I have stressed on the need to move forward for Team India. I posted a 4-part 'Roadmap for the Future' series yesterday. One of the essential things while moving forward is taking stock of your past actions... and trying to find out what went wrong.

India went into the inaugural Twenty20 World Cup in South Africa in 2007 having played only 1 international T20 match in its history. They went in not only without expectations... they also went in without much experience. And in one of the best adverts for Twenty20 cricket, India played and beat Pakistan in the final. When about 25 to 30 percent of the earth's population is following one particular cricket match, it is bound to have a domino effect.

So after the win over the arch rivals, the young Indian men who were trying to make the cut into the senior team were suddenly the toast of the nation. They were heaped with rewards, honours, glory and above all, the most corruptible thing of them all - money. With these youngsters getting fat paychecks at the IPL held soon after, they assumed that they had successfully overgrown the popularity of their seniors... the stars who had proved themselves everywhere... in every condition... in every situation... for years and years and years. All this due to one win!

The teams that played Twenty20 cricket for India since the World Cup win remained essentially same in character... but just could not manage the desired results. In the 17 international T20 matches that India has played since the World Cup final at the Wanderers, India has managed just 7 wins. And if you were to exclude the matches against Ireland, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, it would be down to 4 wins from 14 matches against the top-8 opponents in international cricket.

4 wins in 14 games! That is a winning percentage of less than 30%, despite having a stable team and captain. Do you realise that even Kings XI Punjab fared better than that this season in the IPL? And they were pathetic. So what's the word to be used for India? I am lost completely.

The members if this team need to be made to face reality. They need to be brought down from their high pedestals. Gary Kirsten has already lashed out hard... and if a man like him is lashing out hard, then the problem is extremely severe. Something needs to be done. Urgently.

INDIAN CAPTAINS AND CAPTAIN'S KNOCK

The match between Kings XI Punjab and Chennai Super Kings has just concluded, with the two teams providing us exactly the kind of finish that I had mentioned in my previous blog. MS Dhoni finished the game off in style and ensured that CSK enters the semi-finals of IPL for the third consecutive year. In the process, he ended up playing what would now be described by most experts as a 'captain's knock'. They will now be hoping that they are third time lucky.

The supporters of Delhi Daredevils will be hoping the same... but they have to qualify for the semis first. Their quarter-final match against the in-form Deccan Chargers has just begun and the stage is set for Ferozeshah Kotla to host its most important match of the tournament.

Harsha Bhogle just mentioned that the best 4 teams should qualify for the semis, and that DD is amongst those four. He did admit that the DC camp would argue his statement, especially since their performance during the 2nd half of the tournament has been inspiring; but he felt that DD is a better side.

Harsha's words very much echo my thoughts. DD has lost its zip in the last few matches, but they are still the favourites tonight for me. There is an ulterior motive as well for supporting the Daredevils... their qualification in the semis will ensure that an Indian captain will lift the IPL trophy on the 25th April at the Dr. D.Y. Patil Sports Academy Stadium, Navi Mumbai.

The Deccan Chargers do not want to become the second successive defending champions to be knocked out of the tournament before the semis. Given their form coming into this game (4 wins on a trot), one wouldn't put it beyond them. But as long as I am concerned, my support is clear. Go on Delhi... I am looking forward to a DD - CSK second semi-final on the 22nd April at Navi Mumbai.

THE LAST WEEK OF IPL

7 matches remain in the IPL 2010 - 3 in the league stage, 2 semi-finals, 1 3rd-place play-off and the Finals. Despite just 3 matches remaining in the league stage, the semi-final positions are unclear. Mathematically, just 1 team is secure and 2 teams are knocked out. All the rest of the 5 teams still stand a chance to take remaining 3 spots in the semis.

Last year, when IPL had moved to South Africa, there were many close finishes. Out of the 59 matches played, 24 had victory margins of 10 or less runs or 6 or less balls to spare. In this IPL so far, back in India, only 16 matches have had such results.

However, the lack of close finishes has been compensated by the fact that each finish has been complicating the points table more and more. The fact that three spots for the semis are still undecided bear ample testimony to this fact.

By the time the second match of the day ends, the picture will become a lot clearer. The results over the past couple of days have made the equation very easy of CSK - win against KXIP and enter the semis; or lose the match and head back home. DD and CSK are the two teams who have featured in the semis of both the earlier tournaments, but never gone on to win the tournament. CSK did reach the finals in 2008 and DD managed to top the tables in 2009, but neither will be satisfied.

All the teams know very well that once they reach the semi-finals, the past results count for nothing. As a result, the pressure in the semis will be on the table-toppers MI who will have to cap their dominance with two more victories. Otherwise, it will all count for nothing.

It is good that MI is most likely to face RCB in the semis and not CSK. A team like CSK would have been under a lot less pressure, because they were never the favourites to get there. RCB, on the other hand, will be under immense pressure themselves because they were meant to get there, but goofed up their campaign somehow to reach the semis with just inches to spare.

So, for now, lets just hope that the remaining 7 matches all have close finishes for an interesting week ahead.

DHARAMSALA: CRICKET'S NEW PILGRIMAGE

Yesterday's match: Chennai Super Kings v Delhi Daredevils
My Prediction: Chennai Super Kings
Actual Winner: Delhi Daredevils

Today's Match: Kings XI Punjab v Deccan Chargers
My Prediction: Kings XI Punjab

My Score: 6 / 12

DD managed to scrap together a win yesterday against a buoyant CSK side to be almost certain of a place in the top-4. Gautam Gambhir must be relieved that none of his batsmen were run out in the match. It must be added here that the skipper Gambhir played a very mature hand after his top order had found new ways to commit hara kiri. I don't think he had ever imagined that he would bat 56 balls in a Twenty20 match and score just 57.

For the first time in this tournament, DD got the chance to go in with their first-choice new ball attack... and the effect was felt straightaway. Ashish Nehra and Dirk Nannes rattled the CSK batsmen and Hayden's mongoose-attack in their last meeting was soon forgotten.

This result does not make any difference to DC, though. They will still need to win both their remaining matches to qualify without getting into the run rate equations. And they would not want to rely on run rates, because their current NRR is -0.438.

I am neither a fan of DC, nor of KXIP. However, I am eagerly looking forward to the match tonight because IPL is moving to a new venue today.

DHARAMSALA. I have heard a lot about this cricket ground. The 21000-capacity HPCA Cricket Stadium is located at a height of 1457 metres above sea level and surrounded by Dhauladhar ranges, leaving the spectators with a breath taking view. The place is of immense religious value to Buddhists. Today, I want to see the scenic beauty for myself.

The high altitude might turn out to be a bit uncomfortable to the DC players who have, by now, become accustomed to the hot climate of places like Nagpur and Navi Mumbai. In fact, the next visitors to Dharamsala will be CSK, another team used to the hot and humid surroundings of Chennai. This should give a small advantage to KXIP, who have become adept at throwing away any advantage or momentum on their side.

So lets wait and watch out as IPL embarks on cricket's new pilgrimage!

CAN SRT BE BANNED FOR THE FINALS?

One of my friends asked me about what would happen if MI won the semi-final and ended up with slow over rate. MI has already committed such an offence twice. When KXIP committed this offence for the third time, their captain Kumar Sangakkara was banned for a match. If MI commit the offence for the third time in the semi-finals, will Sachin Tendulkar be banned from the finals? Or will there be an exception made because it is the finals or because he is Sachin Tendulkar?

Well, the answer is that I am not sure. I went to the official website of the IPL and checked out the ‘Code of Conduct for Players and Team Officials’ that is effective from 1st March 2010. Here are the regulations that relate to slow over rate:

Article 2.5: Minimum Over Rate Offences –

Failure by a fielding team participating in a Match to meet the Minimum Over Rate requirements contained in Appendix 2 constitutes an offence under this Code of Conduct by the relevant Team Captain and each of the Players in that fielding team.

Note: Subjective intent on behalf of the Team Captain to waste time is not required. It is sufficient to establish that the Minimum Over Rate was not met. To avoid liability under this offence the Team Captain would need to establish, on the balance of probabilities, that the shortfall was due to factors beyond his control and that the time allowances permitted by the Match officials in calculating the required over rate were not sufficient. The presence or absence of subjective intent and the extent of the shortfall shall be relevant in relation to the issue of penalty.

Note: Where a Minimum Over Rate Offence may have occurred, see Appendix 2 for the reporting process, disciplinary process and sanctions that are to be applied.

Appendix 2:

Article 4.2: For the purpose of Minimum Over Rate Offences only, the table at Article 7.3 of the Code of Conduct shall be replaced with the following:

       4.2.1: for the first offence by the Team in a Season the Captain of the bowling Team will be fined US$20,000;

       4.2.2: for the second offence in a Season by the same Team then the Captain will be fined US$40,000 and each Player the Team involved in the relevant Match will be fined US$10,000;

       4.2.3: for the third and each subsequent offence in a Season by the same Team the Captain will be fined US$50,000 and banned from playing in the Team’s next Match and each Player in the Team involved will be fined US$20,000.

The above extracts (and indeed the entire Code of Conduct document) do not mention anywhere that special considerations will be made in respect of the semi-finals or finals or in respect of Sachin Tendulkar!

So I think it would be safe to assume that if MI commit such an offence in the semi-finals, then Sachin Tendulkar ought to be banned from the finals.

But then that would be ridiculous! The final of the richest cricket tournament just cannot go ahead with the star attractions banned due to issues as trivial as slow over rates. I can understand bans due to misconduct or bringing the game to disrepute. But slow over rates? Give me a break!

At this point, I’ll draw a comparison to football. In a football tournament, if a player receives a yellow card, it is carried forward to the future matches. Another yellow card in the future match results in the player being suspended for the subsequent game. Now I don’t know about all football tournaments… but I do know that in tournaments like UEFA Champions League, the yellow card records of all the players are wiped out clean once the ‘Round Robin Stage’ ends and the tournament moves into the 'Knockout Round'.

This ensures that the best players are always available for the Knockout stages (unless they are injured, of course!) and as a result, the tournament sees better quality of football as well as attracts greater viewership. Given that IPL has picked up a lot of ideas from European Football Leagues, this one would not be a bad one either!

A CRACK IN THE FORTRESS

Yesterday's match 1: Delhi Daredevils v Kings XI Punjab
My Prediction: Delhi Daredevils
Actual Winner: Kings XI Punjab

Yesterday's match 2: Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians
My Prediction: Rajasthan Royals
Actual Winner: Mumbai Indians

Today's Match: Deccan Chargers v Royal Challengers Bangalore
My Prediction: Royal Challengers Bangalore

My Score: 3 / 7

Yesterday's matches were very bad for my predictions, but it does not matter one bit. MI is through to the semi-finals and I am delighted! RR have lost for the first time at the Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur - and its Warne's old pal SRT who inflicted the first crack at the fortress!

Yes, I felt a little bad for DD - a team that I like. But despite this defeat (an embarassing one), they are almost certain to go through. KXIP did them a favour by taking their own sweet time in chasing down a paltry target of 112. It ensured that the Net Run Rate of DD does not take a big dip.

But it was the second match yesterday that stole the show for me! It was a perfect match for a Mumbai Indians supporter! A win at Jaipur against RR, who had not lost a single match there, was special. It was almost like Manchester United beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge!

Another batting masterclass by SRT (he tripled his tally of tournament sixes yesterday) ensured that he wore the Orange Cap in the second half. If orange caps were to be awarded for international runs tally, then that cap would never leave his head! His three boundaries off Warne's over were delightful to watch. The first one over extra cover was the best - his use of the wrists to control the direction showcased the artist at work!

And by the end of his innings, he was reading the bowlers like an open book, especially Shane Watson. Twice in the 19th over by Shane Watson, Sachin was waiting on the backfoot for what he knew was going to be a bouncer - and he was absolutely correct! Aditya Dole, you do not drop Sachin Tendulkar EVER!

The DC v RCB game today would be an interesting one with respect to the race for the semi-final berths. A week ago, I was thinking that 4 teams are fighting over 1 semi-final berth. Then, mid-week, it became a case of 5 teams for 2 berths. And now, with DD's loss yesterday, it has become a case of 6 teams for 3 berths. It couldn't have gotten any better!

THE STORY OF A 'TEST' SIDE

Yesterday's match 1: Deccan Chargers v Chennai Super Kings
My Prediction: Deccan Chargers
Actual Winner: Deccan Chargers

Yesterday's match 2: Royal Challengers Bangalore v Kolkata Knight Riders
My Prediction: Royal Challengers Bangalore
Actual Winner: Royal Challengers Bangalore

Today's Match 1: Delhi Daredevils v Kings XI Punjab
My Prediction: Delhi Daredevils

Today's Match 2: Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians
My Prediction: Rajasthan Royals

My Score: 3 / 5.

Yesterday, just before the toss before the 2nd match, Sourav Ganguly was asked what was his side's track record on that ground (M.A. Chidambaram Stadium, Bangalore). He said: "Played one, won one."

So I tried to recall what had happenned in 2008 between RCB and KKR at Bangalore. And then I realised - the first ever IPL match - the Brendon McCullum 150 - the 140 run thrashing of a "Test" team.

The tables have turned completely. RCB is no more a "Test" team. KKR has forgotten what it is like to win comprehensively. And RCB is more likely to finish 2nd from top in the points table - rather than 2nd from bottom.

With his dismissal yesterday, McCullum now has an IPL average at Bangalore - an average of 203. But he could do nothing this time to help KKR win, which puts them in a precarious position in respect of the semi-final qualification spot.

The second match today will be of great importance for the semi-final race. A win for MI will seal their place and virtually oust RR. On the other hand, a win for RR will not only help them take a huge step ahead, but also cause a lot of anxiety in the MI camp.

Even though I am a supporter of MI, I have predicted a RR win today because of the fact that they have never lost a single match in Jaipur. They have a brilliant record on that ground - and seem to be peaking at this moment.

Still, I will keep hoping that by the end of this day, one semi-final spot will be taken up.

EMPTY STANDS AND LOO

Yesterday's match: Kings XI Punjab v Mumbai Indians
My Prediction: Mumbai Indians
Actual Winner: Kings XI Punjab

Today's Match 1: Deccan Chargers v Chennai Super Kings
My Prediction: Deccan Chargers

Today's Match 2: Royal Challengers Bangalore v Kolkata Knight Riders
My Prediction: Royal Challengers Bangalore


MI has gotten into a losing streak (I know it's only two in a row now, but their next match is against RR at Jaipur - and RR has NEVER lost a match at Jaipur). Yesterday's result is not going to affect the table in any way, but KXIP has issued a warning to all their remaining opponents that they are going to try and upset a few parties.

The afternoon match today between DC and CSK will be played at Nagpur. Who the hell plays in the afternoon at Nagpur? Its 41 degree celcius and DRY out there. It is the most dry part of India and the 'hot winds' that blow in the afternoon over there (called 'Loo Winds') can really knock you out. All I can say is best luck to DC and CSK boys!

I hope Lalit Modi sees this match and realises that the attendance is 'very poor' at the neutral-Nagpur. It might be one of the best grounds in the country with great facilities, but it is very poorly located. It is far away from the city of Nagpur and takes a long time to reach there. Add to that the fact that it is hosting home matches for DC, who do not have a single big Indian star in their ranks. I mean, for God's sake, the Nagpur crowd is not going to come out in this kind of heat to watch a neutral game and support the likes of Rohit Sharma and RP Singh.

RCB and KKR will have much better and 'playable' conditions later in the evening at Bangalore. Both teams need wins for varying reasons - RCB to arrest their loss of momentum and KKR to take another step towards the semis. If KKR manage a win, RCB will truly need to worry about their semi-final spot. Kevin Pietersen must be wondering why his presence affects the RCB squad's performance so adversely!

SRT v LEE AND SANGA - MAHELA v LASITH MALINGA

Yesterday's match: Royal Challengers Bangalore v Deccan Chargers
My Prediction: Deccan Chargers
Actual Winner: Deccan Chargers

Today's Match: Kings XI Punjab v Mumbai Indians
My Prediction: Mumbai Indians

So finally, after a long time, my prediction has come true! And I hope that tonight's will come true as well!

I hope Zaheer is fit and well-rested... I am not worried about him missing more matches for MI, but I want him fit for the World Twenty20 Championship. He is India's best pace bowler today by quite a distance... and he's not featured in either of the two World Twenty20 Championships that have been held till date.

Mohali will provide much better playing conditions that Chennai (in respect of weather)... so I am positively hoping for a big performance from SRT today! Incidentally, Sachin has hit just 1 six at Mohali in international matches - way back on 8th November 2007 against Shahid Afridi (Pakistan) in an innings where he was dismissed for 99! I'd love to see a similar performance tonight.

Some people are waiting for the Sachin Tendulkar v Brett Lee contest, but I am actually waiting to see the Sangakkara - Jayawardene v Lasith Malinga contest. Not so long back, another magician from the Emerald Isles - Muttiah Muralitharan - got the better of his countrymen when KXIP played CSK. Will the slinger-Malinga manage the same?

And yes, by the way, RCB's loss yesterday has thrown open the entire IPL table. Whereas just a week ago, 4 teams were fighting for 1 semi-final slot, now it has become 5 teams fighting over 2 slots. RCB's momentum has gone for a toss... and there have been numerous question marks from every quarter over their team selection policies.

They are due to host KKR tomorrow, who have suddenly found a new energy (especially, their skipper Sourav 'Dada' Ganguly). That match, I believe, will be a lot more interesting than tonight's fixture... but then, God's team will be playing tonight!

GIBBERISH!

I know that the table above looks gibberish... but then I like doing gibberish stuff! The top row lists the home teams and the results of their matches against the corresponding away teams are given below their names. A home win is indicated by green colour and an away win by red colour.

And just to make it more colourful, yellow indicates the matches that are due to be played on the given dates, and blue indicates the matches that are not possible (I mean, Mumbai Indians cannot play against Mumbai Indians, come on!).

A few things came to my notice due to the abundance of colour usage. Firstly, I had not realised that KXIP is yet to win a home game (though it's certainly not surprising). Secondly, I was under the impression that only MI has lost just 1 match at home. Now I have realised that even RCB and RR have lost only 1 at home thus far (though they still have 3 and 2 home matches remaining, as compared to  MI's 1 home match).

And another piece of information that is not visible from the above table, but just for fun: both of DC's home wins have been at Cuttack. Nagpur and Navi Mumbai, their other two 'homes', have not yielded positive results. The wins at Cuttack were the first wins that DC have registered in their 'catchment' area. They lost all the 7 matches in IPL 2008 at Hyderabad, and then went on to lost 2 matches in Champions League 2009 at the same venue again. Maybe, they should look to shift their franchise's base.

APR 25: IPL FINALS - MI v DD

Have a look at this - the IPL Points Table. The RR - KXIP clash has just gotten over, with the home side continuing their golden 'home' run at Jaipur - streamrolling KXIP by 9 wickets with 5 overs to spare.

Now, I just thought of stepping into the shoes of Nostradamus and find out who will win this IPL. So, there you go:

Apr 07 - KKR v DD
Apr 08 - RCB v DC
Apr 09 - KXIP v MI
Apr 10 - DC v CSK
Apr 10 - RCB v KKR
Apr 11 - DD v KXIP
Apr 11 - RR v MI
Apr 12 - DC v RCB
Apr 13 - MI v DD
Apr 13 - CSK v KKR
Apr 14 - RR v RCB
Apr 15 - CSK v DD
Apr 16 - KXIP v DC
Apr 17 - RCB v MI
Apr 17 - KKR v RR
Apr 18 - KXIP v CSK
Apr 18 - DD v DC
Apr 19 - KKR v MI

The top-4 will then look like this: 1. MI - 22 points; 2. DD - 18 points; 3. RCB - 16 points; 4. CSK - 16 points. So the semi-final fixtures will be:

Apr 21 - 1st Semi Final - MI v CSK
Apr 22 - 2nd Semi Final - DD v RCB

Apr 24 - 3rd Place Playoff - RCB v CSK
Apr 25 - Finals - Mumbai Indians v Delhi Daredevils

So there you go... Mumbai Indians will win the IPL this year (something I have been saying every year). But c'mon, what a final this would be! The biggest domestic rivalry in India reignited at a bigger stage! Awesome!

KUMBLE'S SELECTION ERROR

A huge Galye hit the Kings XI Punjab side at the Eden Gardens, Kolkata before Mahela Jayawardene applied a soothing balm to heal the wounds and bruises.

That innings by Jayawardene was not only soothing for the Kings XI side, but also to the eyes of many who, like me, are a little tired of all the slogs and mishits that have been carrying all the way for *** Maximums and being called **** Moments of Success instead of becoming ******* Kamaal Catches.

And thus, IPL III saw another game (two in as many days) where more than 400 runs were scored. This match has given another jolt to KKR in their quest for a semi-final spot. If they do not reach the semi-final this year, they will be the only one amongst the 8 original teams not to have reached the semi-finals ever when they start their campaign next year (I have obviously made a very safe assumption that Mumbai Indians will make it to the final-4 this year).

In the second match, Delhi Daredevils blew away the Royal Challengers Bangalore side. I think that Anil Kumble made a huge mistake by making 3 changes to a winning squad in order to accomodate Ross Taylor. There is no doubt that Ross Taylor is a very good cricketer, but was including him in the squad so important that 3 other players had to be dropped?

By dropping Manish Pandey, Kumble broke a solid opening partnership that has been one of the reasons behind RCB's good performances this summer. By removing Dale Steyn, he not only excluded from his squad the best fast bowler in the world, but also one who has been bowling in the Indian conditions for two months now and has his lengths well-adjusted. If he really wanted to go for Ross Taylor, he should have just dropped Cameron White.

But yes, if you have read my previous blog, you will know that RCB has continued its tradition of losing matches held on Formula One Sundays. Dr. Mallya did all the travelling from Sepang to Kotla in vain.

Today, Nagpur will host its first ever IPL match between Deccan Chargers and Rajasthan Royals, where a loss for the former ('home' team) will almost be curtains for them in the tournament.

KING-SIZE CRISIS

The third edition of IPL is remarkably similar to the first two. By the midway stage, the most likely wooden spooners have been discovered. And guess what, there are controversies in these squads.

2008 - Deccan Chargers, arguably the strongest side on paper, was in shambles at the midway stage in the inaugural IPL. Their performances on the field were just not coming good... and to top it all, there were problems with VVS Laxman's captaincy. Eventually, Adam Gilchrist took over the captaincy as Laxman sat out due to an injury.

2009 - Kolkata Knight Riders was the team in the news everytime... for all the wrong reasons. John Buchanan and his multiple-captain-theory, handing over the captaincy to Brendon McCullum (who isn't even a regular international captain), Fake IPL Player blogging controversy, a coaching squad almost as large as the actual playing staff, and then losing a One Over Eliminator... oh well, one could write an entire book on KKR's African odyssey.

2010 - And this year, with another captain versus star local player controversy, the bottom-placed team is Kings XI Punjab. 1 win in 8 games - that too by way of a One Over Eliminator - is a sorry state of affair. The news floating about rifts within the team, Yuvraj's mother coming out to defend her son, Sangakkara banned for slow over rates... and the dimples have vanished from Preity's face!

KXIP just seem to be lacking the confidence to finish off a game. Just when they hold a slight edge, somehow someone contrives just enough to lose the plot. A 25-run over, a wide down the legside running to the fence, a dropped catch kicked away for a four, a fumble in the deep... the team just seems to be lacking the ability to deliver the killer punch. It seems amazing now that they managed to win that Super Over! May be, Chennai Super Kings did manage to lose it!

Its very clear now - all that KXIP can play for now is to avoid the wooden spoon. Even that seems extremely unlikely in the given scenario!

DUE TO DEW

Talk of Twenty20 being an unpredictable game... and the IPL is proving it! Harbhajan Singh, in an inspired display of his cricketing abilities over 4 consecutive overs (3 while batting and 1 while bowling), completely turned the game between Deccan Chargers and Mumbai Indians on it head.

The crowd at Dr. D.Y. Patil Sports Academy Stadium seemed almost indignant at the fact that they were hosting an 'away' game for Mumbai Indians... so they made their feelings clear at the top of their voices by showing clearly who they were out to support.

However, when I say that IPL is proving the unpredictability of Twenty20 format, I have a few numbers here to prove it. Out of the 26 games played (till yesterday's DD v KKR), 13 have been won by teams winning the toss. If winning the toss can guarantee you a win on half the occasions only, that is an ideal ratio!

Compare it with the ODIs: In the year 2010, 35 ODIs have given a result (matches between Kenya, Netherlands, Afghanistan and Canada excluded from analysis). Out of the 35 matches, 21 have been won by the side winning the toss. That is 60% of the ODI matches are decided at the toss.

In the subcontinent (especially in day-night matches), this percentage rises even higher. Matches are decided at the time of toss itself due to the 'dew factor'. In Twenty20s, since the conditions to both the teams are relatively same, the 'dew factor' does not have a lot of say.

An IPL Twenty20 match gets over in 3.5 hours (an International T20 takes lesser time). That's the time one innings in an ODI takes. So the conditions faced by both the teams remain similar throughout the match.

One captain who is usually extremely lucky with his coin tosses, though not so much in this IPL, is Kumar Sangakkara. However, his luck is not getting transformed into luck for his team. He will be desperately hoping for some luck as KXIP take on the table-toppers MI this evening.

KXIP NEEDS A NEW LEADER

When Irfan Pathan came to bowl the last over of KKR's innings against KXIP at Mohali, his figures read 1 for 21 in 3 overs. And in that one over, he managed to replicate those figures, 1 for 21, and thereby finish with 2 for 42.

I think that KXIP need a good leader. With due respect to Kumar Sangakkara (who is a wonderful batsman and keeper), I believe that he is not inspirational enough to solve the current problems of KXIP.

We saw last year, when Royal Challengers Bangalore team was suffering from problems similar to that of the Kings XI Punjab this time, a new leader in the form of Anil Kumble spelled a reversal in their fortunes. Shane Warne has always had the ability to inspire his Rajasthan Royals side to comeback when the odds have been stacked against them. In IPL 2008, Sachin Tendulkar missed the first 7 matches of Mumbai Indians. But he returned to inspire a turnaround in the performance, which saw them miss out on the semi-final spot marginally by 1 point.

KXIP's troubles this year are similar to those of KKR's cricket-related problems last year (KKR had too many non-cricket problems as well). Despite having a good enough team, there is a lack of confidence that is hindering them in their efforts to land the killer blow. Even in today's match, when KKR was struggling to find momentum in the slog overs, KXIP should have chipped away at a couple of wickets and finished KKR. Instead, they conceded 53 runs in the last 4 overs. In the end, 183 always seemed daunting.

I do not know who is the vice-captain of KXIP. Sanga has already been fined twice due to slow over rates, and there might be a ban looming round the corner.

BLACK MAGIC

Kings XI Punjab will be hosting the Kolkata Knight Riders this evening at Mohali, in a clash that might see an overdose of Bollywood with Preity Zinta, Shah Rukh Khan and Juhi Chawla associated with the two franchisees and many others in the film industry pledging their support for one team or the other.

This is the second consecutive Kings XI Punjab match that can be termed as a-bottom-of-the-table clash. In their last game, KXIP (then 7th) lost to Rajasthan Royals (then 8th) at Ahmedabad. Now, RR has climbed to the 3rd position and the 8th-placed KXIP will be hoping that a similar journey begins for them today against the KKR, who themselves are desperately seeking winning ways.

But this post is about something else. I have just discovered the secret behind the success of Mumbai Indians this season. It's lying in my wardrobe - my Black 'Sachin' t-shirt! That is what has been making MI win all this time!

I have discovered that whenever I wear my Black Sachin t-shirt during MI's match, they go on to win. It's Black Magic at work! If I wear the other White MI jersey, they end up losing, like it happenned on 20th March against the Royal Challengers Bangalore team. But despite MI's loss, that match was a wonderful experience due to two reasons. First, RCB is my second favourite team after MI. Second, it was my first experience of watching a cricket match in a movie theatre.

At about 7.30 that evening, a friend of mine and I decided that we will watch the MI v RCB match at the BIG Cinema multiplex (which is located at the other end of Pune from where I live). So by the time we got hurriedly ready, drove in high traffic to the other end, got our tickets and took our seats, MI had already lost Sanath Jaisuriya.

The best part about watching the match in there was - NO ADVERTISEMENTS! Actually, there were commercials during the strategic time-outs, but the fact that there were no commercials in between overs was refreshing to watch. All the fans in the hall were also distributed with whistles and banners indicating '4' and '6'. So it was fun!

I wouldn't go as far as calling it a 'stadium' experience, but it's the closest I have come to a stadium experience in a long long time. I could shout my support for Sachin at the top of my voice without worrying about the neighbours getting disturbed! By the end of it, my throat was tired and aching! All this when MI lost! I am wondering what would have happenned had MI won...

I wish that BIG Cinema's association with sports continues. I would like to see the upcoming FIFA World Cup in there as well. I know that it is not financially feasible to show each match live, but if it's possible, they could broadcast live the finals atleast. That would be enormous fun!