ANOTHER THEORY ON WHY INDIA WILL WIN THE WORLD CUP!

We just love to pick on odd trivia here and there, form some sort of a connection, and form a belief that the team (in this case, India) we support will win the World Cup. I have already done two such posts here and here... and this is another one!

One of my friends pointed this out to me... all the big tournaments that Mahendra Singh Dhoni has won as a captain have had one game where his team was involved in a tie! Take a look:

2007 - 1st ICC World Twenty20 Championship - India v. Pakistan
2010 - 3rd Indian Premier League - Chennai Super Kings v. Kings XI Punjab
2010 - 2nd Champions League Twenty20 - Chennai Super Kings v. Victoria Bushrangers

So now that we have seen a Dhoni-led team tie a game in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011, we should know who will be winning it as well...

(Thank you Ali, for pointing this out to me!)

DHONI'S SUPER-MISTAKE

MS Dhoni's choice of bowler for the Super Over during yesterday's tied tie against Victoria was a surprising one. Usually, a captain gives the ball to a bowler who has had a good day. That would have been Murali, given that both Bollinger and Ashwin had had a mixed day.


However, to my mind, the best option would still have been Bollinger. Here is a bit of trivia before I proceed further:


- Cricinfo archives show that there have been 12 recorded cases of Super Overs in Twenty20 matches, including yesterday's.
- Of these 12, I managed to find out who were the bowlers and the scores involved in 11 of them.
- The 1 match that I did not manage to find anything about was the Northern Districts v. Canterbury match at Seddon Park, Hamilton on 18th February 2009.
- On a completely irrelevant note, that day (i.e. 18th February 2009) saw 2 other cases of Super Overs in South Africa - Dolphins v Cape Cobras at Kingsmead, Durban and Eagles v Warriors at St. George's Park, Port Elizabeth.
- Of the 22 Super Overs (11 X 2) I have on record, only 7 have been bowled by slow bowlers.
- Of these 7, only 2 have been won by slow bowlers. Incidentally, both these wins came when the opposition also used a slow bowler for their Super Over.
- So in the 3 cases where Super Over was a slow bowler v medium / pace bowler affair, the slower bowlers have always failed to deliver.


Now, I do not expect MS Dhoni to know these facts. But I would have expected him to learn from his mistakes. Just this year at the IPL, he had faced a Super Over situation where he chose Muttiah Muralitharan to bowl against Kings XI Punjab to defend his team's score of 9 for 2 (which were scored against Juan Theron - a medium pacer). Muralitharan managed 10 for 1 in less than 1 over as CSK lost that match and crucial points.


In the only other case of pace v spin, Ajantha Mendis had fared badly as Yusuf Pathan demolished him during IPL 2009's Rajasthan Royals v Kolkata Knight Riders match. Kamran Khan, the unheralded young Royals pacer had gone for 16 in his over as Mendis conceded 18 in his first 4 balls itself. And I expect Dhoni knew about this match.


Added to this were factors like constant drizzle and the grip on the ball during the Super Over yesterday. So Dhoni's decision to use Ashwin was pretty much a wrong one to me even before he started bowling and conceded those 20-odd runs. The match was effectively sealed then and the points secured for Victoria.

PLAYER RETENTION STRATEGIES

The player retention rules for the fourth edition of the Indian Premier League are out. So after weeks of speculation, here they are:

A. The maximum number of players that can be retained are 4.
B. The maximum number of Indian players amongst those retained can be 3, and the maximum number of Foreign Players amongst those retained can be 2.
C. Irrespective of what fee is paid to the retained players, the deduction from the total salary budget of US$ 9 million will be in the following format:
                1 Player(s) Retained - US$ 1.8 million
                2 Player(s) Retained - US$ 1.3 million
                3 Player(s) Retained - US$ 0.9 million
                4 Player(s) Retained - US$ 0.5 million

So lets say that a franchisee retains just 1 player, then irrespective of what they pay him, they can spend upto US$ 7.2 million at the auction. If they retain 2 players, their spending power will be US$ 5.9 million. It will be US$ 5.0 million if they retain 3 and US$ 4.5 million if they retain 4 players.

So what will be retaining strategy be like? In this post, I will try and look at it purely from the finance point of view (with a little bit of a reference to cricket).

The first major question that will need to be answered is that whether the player who is to be retained is really worth the amount that will be deducted from the team's budget... or whether all the players to be retained collectively are worth the total amount that will be reduced from their spending budget at the auction.

For example, Mumbai Indians should not hesitate in retaining Sachin Tendulkar and Kieron Pollard, for together they are easily worth US$ 3.1 million (if not a lot more). Chennai Super Kings have a similar state as far as the duo of MS Dhoni and Suresh Raina is concerned. Well, frankly, I am not a big fan of Dhoni and don't think he is worth much... but there is not doubt that he will be retained for his Brand Value. The entire brand marketing of Chennai's franchisee has been done around Dhoni. He is the poster boy of their team. Therefore, he will definitely be retained.

The problem will occur for the likes of Rajasthan Royals and Kings XI Punjab... I don't think anyone on their present team is worth US$ 1.8 million. Maybe Yuvraj Singh is, but then he does not want to stay at Mohali (from what has been reported).

The second consideration is that even if the teams do not retain players, they will have to spend upwards of US$ 1 million each in buying at least 2 big names that can benefit their team... maybe, even upwards of US$ 1.5 million. So it might be ideal to retain the old ones as one does not really know how high the valuation for the new ones will be, whether they will be worth it.

For example, Praveen Kumar may not justify a price tag of US$ 1.8 or 1.3 million, but it may be wiser to retain him as his price may well exceed US$ 1 million when 10 owners sit together for the bid - and - buy auction process.

The third major question, as I have already talked of in one of the examples above, is the brand-building. Chennai Super Kings have their entire brand name built around the image of Mahendra Singh Dhoni. There is no way they can let him go. No other cricketer in the league is has his brand so closely associated with that of the franchise as the Indian skipper.

And yes, finally there is the question of whether the entire team can be bought in US$ 4.5 million if a team decides to retain 4 men. We must remember that in the first ever auction, the limit for spending was up to US$ 5 million only. So there is no reason why an entire team cannot be bought for US$ 4.5 million, especially considering that in doing so the teams will be retaining their 4 main old men in their squad.

It would be interesting to see the auction process when it does take place. For the sake of the existing fans, I hope that there is not much of a reshuffle so that fan loyalties towards a particular player can be maintained. And for the sake of the fans of the two new teams, I hope they do get a chance to net in some big names who will perform for them well in the tournament.

UMPIRING CANNOT BE THE EXCUSE

India's One Day team has put up another horrible performance in Dambulla. There are cries that I hear about poor umpiring. Granted, the umpiring was poor... but the only ones who lost out due to that kind of umpiring were Sehwag and Yuvraj.


Sehwag is in top form and will feel genuinely disappointed at being given out on a ball where most Elite Panel umpires would kept have fingers to themselves. Yuvraj, on the other hand, was getting some very valuable practice in match conditions in a lost cause... but considering that he has been in a very bad form and really needed that practice, he will feel wronged on being cut short by an Asad-Rauf-howler.


Well, as for Dinesh Karthik... the decision may have been wrong, but the umpire just reduced the suffering for Dinesh Karthik and the Indian fans. That guy has now had more than enough opportunities. How he manages to maintain his place as the first replacement to a top-order batsmen with just 20s and rare 30s is beyond my understanding (actually not, it's obviously the Cheeka factor)! And Suresh Raina just had to shrug off his piece of bad luck after having encountered good luck just a few moments before.


And there is no excuse for Rohit Sharma and MS Dhoni. Rohit Sharma frustrates an Indian fan like very few others can... he is so obviously full of unconverted talent! I now fully appreciate the angst of a Bangladesh cricketer over the case of Mohammed Ashraful. In fact, I have a feeling that even I can get Sharma's wicket on my bowling. The only thing I do well is bowl those gentle dibbly-dobbly off-cutters... but then, that is how Rohit Sharma gets out! I can keep bowling those in the knowledge that very soon Sharma will get his front leg across and I will catch him plumb in front!


And MS Dhoni... the skipper! I have always been of the opinion that he is a master of mediocre attacks and mediocre conditions. Once in a while he may come up with a truly astounding performance in a pressure situation... but those occasions are very rare now... and have happened more often for Chennai Super Kings than Team India in 2010. If Dhoni really wanted to play a captain's knock today, he'd play himself higher and not wait till 4 wickets are down to finally show his presence.


But I am still not worried about India's batting scene... because with the entry of Sachin Tendulkar and Gautam Gambhir, not only will a lot of stability be instilled in the team... but also the frustrating figures of Rohit Sharma and Dinesh Karthik will vanish! And considering that the World Cup is in the sub-continent, Dhoni will not be very troubled either...

VINAY KUMAR PRAYING FOR A DIFFERENT SCRIPT THAN M VIJAY

After India's performance yesterday, I was left speechless. I can understand having a bad game... but players learn from their mistakes even in a bad game. On the other hand, in yesterday's game against Australia, India never seemed to want to learn.

The spinners kept pitching it short, and the pacers on length. And the batsmen... well, I wouldn't blame them. They are just not good enough against good fast bowling.

When Sehwag had problems against the short balls climbing onto his chest, he found a way out. He developed the tuck behind square for a single, and when in mood, he used the make-some-room-and-hit-over-square-on-the-off-side. This has not happenned with the other guys in the team. Their inadequacies against the short balls were exploited during the last Twenty20 World Cup... and nothing seems to have changed since.

When his franchisee was looking at elimination even before the semi-finals stage in the IPL, MS Dhoni came up with a strong innings to propel his side ahead and eventually to the title.

But it's a completely different ball game here at the Caribbean islands. He is not at Dharamsala or Chennai... but far away at Barbados. He is not playing in his CSK yellow, he is in the Indian deep blue. And bowling to him will not be a well-payed-but-not-so-motivated Irfan Pathan, but some highly-motivated-and-vastly-talented quickies like Kemar Roach, Jerome Taylor and Lasith Malinga.

It's high time that Indian players and selectors understand that country-v-country cricket is extremely different from the IPL. Murali Vijay gained entry into the team due to his IPL performance... and he flopped. Now, Umesh Yadav has gained an entry into the side. I hope he does not meet the same fate as Murali Vijay, though he is unlikely to feature in the playing 11.

The player who will be sensing that opportunity is not too far away is the young medium pacer R Vinay Kumar, who can atleast claim that his selection into the squad was not purely on his IPL performance, but also on the basis of his performance in the domestic season.

Time of reckoning for the young man!

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SIDES

The world has quickly moved on from the result of IPL 2010 finals... it is more interested in the unforeseen result of the IPL Controversy. But I am still a step behind... still thinking about the finals.

Even before the finals, despite my support for MI, I had a strong feeling that CSK could upset the MI bandwagon. I'll tell you why. Lets have a look at the MI players who have played in big finals before this particular match:

Sachin Tendulkar: World Cup 2003 Finals
Zaheer Khan: World Cup 2003 Finals
Harbhajan Singh: World Cup 2003 Finals
Lasith Malinga: World Cup 2007 Finals
Kieron Pollard: Champions League 2009 Finals

In case you haven't noticed, all the five players above played in these finals for the losing team. These men had had no experience of winning a big finale. On the other hand, here is a list of CSK players:

MS Dhoni: World Twenty20 Cup 2007
Matthew Hayden: World Cup 2003, World Cup 2007
Muttiah Muralitharan: World Cup 1996
Doug Bollinger: Champions League 2009

These men have tasted victories in other big matches. They know how to win the crunch moments of such encounters. And in the end, I guess that was the difference between the two sides on the night of 25th April.

Well, I guess this is my last post related to the cricket in this year's Indian Premier League. A lot of other issues surrounding the cricket have come to fore over the past few days... but all of that, for some other day.

MI: MISSION IMPOSSIBLE

So after 60 games, Chennai Super Kings have been crowned the champions of IPL 3. Did they deserve the title? Mixed opinions. But sadly, the record books will show that Mumbai Indians was the most dominant team in the Indian Premier League 2010 for 59 matches, but could not be crowned the champions due to a few mistakes in the 60th one.

Letting off Suresh Raina twice proved costly... but what followed was even more so. Kieron Pollard was sent at when the asking rate was about 15. He may look like a beast, but he is still a human being. Had he been sent just a wicket or two earlier, he would have atleast had the breathing space to pull off the chase. I know I sound like a sore MI supporter... but it can't be denied that by the time Pollard came in to bat, it was already MI for Mumbai... Mission Impossible!

Congratulations to CSK... the silver lining is that finally, after three years, it was an Indian captain who got to lift the heavy trophy (it is pretty heavy... Lalit Modi almost dropped it at the time of presentation).

Now, as the CSK team celebrates, they and the other teams have already diverted their focus to the upcoming World Twenty20 Championship to be held in the West Indies from April 30. They will not only have to fight the opposition, but also fatigue... especially India. Now, Praveen Kumar and R Vinay Kumar will be facing off against Jacques Kallis, Dale Steyn, Mark Boucher and van der Merwe, who were their teammates just a few days back.

On the whole, though there was some good cricket in this IPL, I was disappointed by the lack of close finishes. I have already touches upon this point in one of my previous blogs... the fact that as compared to the last edition, this IPL featured a lot fewer close finishes. The tightness of the points table somewhat made up for this... but when the last four matches (2 semis, 3rd place playoff and finals) all turn out to be less-than-exciting finishes, the last flourish does not leave a good taste.

Maybe it was the pitch to blame (win-the-toss-bat-first-win-the-match-pitch), but cricket in the end did not win as comprehensively as it should have!

GOD ALSO BLEEDS

Five stitches in the webbing between his fingers... will he be able to play the final? MI had a convincing win over RCB last night, but the elation was subdued due to the news of the injury to Sachin Tendulkar's fingers.

Kieron Pollard limped his way to a 13-ball 33* before limping more to a 3-17 in 4 overs and a contribution to a run-out. By the end of it, he wasn't even limping! Pollard came in when 14 balls remained in the innings... and he faced 13 of them. But he scored just 33 of them! That is slow by his standards. Just last week, he had managed 45. What a bore!

When KP starred with his bowling (finishing with figures of 1-20 in 4 overs), the match was in favour of RCB. And then the new KP, with some help from a lesser-known ST, turned the game around decisively. But any mention of yesterday's win will not be complete without Rayudu's contribution. He steadied the ship early on, got out when MI needed the Pollard thrust, and then capped off a wonderful evening with two low catches and an athletic stumping of the original KP.

Wow, MI in the final. Finally, my investment on the two t-shirts is paying off. Enough about MI now! DC and CSK will be fighting for the other slot in the finals today.

DC is on a high with five consecutive wins. CSK is also on a high with a close nail-biting win in their last match after their meeting with Dalai Lama. Logic would suggest that law of averages is bound to catch up with DC soon. CSK will be wondering how soon!

DC have relied a lot on Andrew Symonds and Rohit Sharma's contributions. Their captain has not really clicked yet. Some performance from Suman and Vaas have helped. CSK, on the other hand, have relied more on their Indian players - the unexpected ones like Murali Vijay and S Badrinath. They have revolved around Suresh Raina though, with some more contributions from MS Dhoni, Doug Bollinger and sometimes, Albie Morkel and Matthew 'Mongoose' Hayden.

I have already lent my support firmly to CSK for this match. And for a change, I'd like to see a close encounter deciding the finalist, unlike the hordes of one-sided matches that we have had in this tournament so far.

SRT, JUMBO, GILLY OR MSD?

The quarterfinal between Delhi Daredevils and Deccan Chargers was also a decider for the 2nd-place finish in the points table. So, it's kind of ironic that the loser does not get to be 3rd or even 4th - the loser was directly knocked out of the tournament.

Delhi Daredevils have been knocked out... one of the favourites before the tournament began are out! Out of my 4 predicted semi-finalists, 3 have managed to get through... but I am still sad about my failed prediction because it shouldn't have failed. DD had the match in their hands... and somehow, they managed to grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Deccan Chargers have qualified... and their form looks ominous for the other semi-finalists, especially CSK, who will play them in the 2nd semi-final on the 22nd. DC beat CSK in both their meetings this year... and pretty convincingly so. But they lost both the matches that they have played this year at Dr. D.Y. Patil Sports Academy Stadium... their 'home' ground. Which streak will continue?

Out of the four semi-finalists, three have played in IPL finals before. Definitely, at least one of the finalists will be carrying the experience from their past. But it will all count for nothing on 25th April. Looking forward to see who will lift the trophy - SRT, Jumbo, Gilly or MSD...

INDIAN CAPTAINS AND CAPTAIN'S KNOCK

The match between Kings XI Punjab and Chennai Super Kings has just concluded, with the two teams providing us exactly the kind of finish that I had mentioned in my previous blog. MS Dhoni finished the game off in style and ensured that CSK enters the semi-finals of IPL for the third consecutive year. In the process, he ended up playing what would now be described by most experts as a 'captain's knock'. They will now be hoping that they are third time lucky.

The supporters of Delhi Daredevils will be hoping the same... but they have to qualify for the semis first. Their quarter-final match against the in-form Deccan Chargers has just begun and the stage is set for Ferozeshah Kotla to host its most important match of the tournament.

Harsha Bhogle just mentioned that the best 4 teams should qualify for the semis, and that DD is amongst those four. He did admit that the DC camp would argue his statement, especially since their performance during the 2nd half of the tournament has been inspiring; but he felt that DD is a better side.

Harsha's words very much echo my thoughts. DD has lost its zip in the last few matches, but they are still the favourites tonight for me. There is an ulterior motive as well for supporting the Daredevils... their qualification in the semis will ensure that an Indian captain will lift the IPL trophy on the 25th April at the Dr. D.Y. Patil Sports Academy Stadium, Navi Mumbai.

The Deccan Chargers do not want to become the second successive defending champions to be knocked out of the tournament before the semis. Given their form coming into this game (4 wins on a trot), one wouldn't put it beyond them. But as long as I am concerned, my support is clear. Go on Delhi... I am looking forward to a DD - CSK second semi-final on the 22nd April at Navi Mumbai.

THE LAST WEEK OF IPL

7 matches remain in the IPL 2010 - 3 in the league stage, 2 semi-finals, 1 3rd-place play-off and the Finals. Despite just 3 matches remaining in the league stage, the semi-final positions are unclear. Mathematically, just 1 team is secure and 2 teams are knocked out. All the rest of the 5 teams still stand a chance to take remaining 3 spots in the semis.

Last year, when IPL had moved to South Africa, there were many close finishes. Out of the 59 matches played, 24 had victory margins of 10 or less runs or 6 or less balls to spare. In this IPL so far, back in India, only 16 matches have had such results.

However, the lack of close finishes has been compensated by the fact that each finish has been complicating the points table more and more. The fact that three spots for the semis are still undecided bear ample testimony to this fact.

By the time the second match of the day ends, the picture will become a lot clearer. The results over the past couple of days have made the equation very easy of CSK - win against KXIP and enter the semis; or lose the match and head back home. DD and CSK are the two teams who have featured in the semis of both the earlier tournaments, but never gone on to win the tournament. CSK did reach the finals in 2008 and DD managed to top the tables in 2009, but neither will be satisfied.

All the teams know very well that once they reach the semi-finals, the past results count for nothing. As a result, the pressure in the semis will be on the table-toppers MI who will have to cap their dominance with two more victories. Otherwise, it will all count for nothing.

It is good that MI is most likely to face RCB in the semis and not CSK. A team like CSK would have been under a lot less pressure, because they were never the favourites to get there. RCB, on the other hand, will be under immense pressure themselves because they were meant to get there, but goofed up their campaign somehow to reach the semis with just inches to spare.

So, for now, lets just hope that the remaining 7 matches all have close finishes for an interesting week ahead.

DHARAMSALA: CRICKET'S NEW PILGRIMAGE

Yesterday's match: Chennai Super Kings v Delhi Daredevils
My Prediction: Chennai Super Kings
Actual Winner: Delhi Daredevils

Today's Match: Kings XI Punjab v Deccan Chargers
My Prediction: Kings XI Punjab

My Score: 6 / 12

DD managed to scrap together a win yesterday against a buoyant CSK side to be almost certain of a place in the top-4. Gautam Gambhir must be relieved that none of his batsmen were run out in the match. It must be added here that the skipper Gambhir played a very mature hand after his top order had found new ways to commit hara kiri. I don't think he had ever imagined that he would bat 56 balls in a Twenty20 match and score just 57.

For the first time in this tournament, DD got the chance to go in with their first-choice new ball attack... and the effect was felt straightaway. Ashish Nehra and Dirk Nannes rattled the CSK batsmen and Hayden's mongoose-attack in their last meeting was soon forgotten.

This result does not make any difference to DC, though. They will still need to win both their remaining matches to qualify without getting into the run rate equations. And they would not want to rely on run rates, because their current NRR is -0.438.

I am neither a fan of DC, nor of KXIP. However, I am eagerly looking forward to the match tonight because IPL is moving to a new venue today.

DHARAMSALA. I have heard a lot about this cricket ground. The 21000-capacity HPCA Cricket Stadium is located at a height of 1457 metres above sea level and surrounded by Dhauladhar ranges, leaving the spectators with a breath taking view. The place is of immense religious value to Buddhists. Today, I want to see the scenic beauty for myself.

The high altitude might turn out to be a bit uncomfortable to the DC players who have, by now, become accustomed to the hot climate of places like Nagpur and Navi Mumbai. In fact, the next visitors to Dharamsala will be CSK, another team used to the hot and humid surroundings of Chennai. This should give a small advantage to KXIP, who have become adept at throwing away any advantage or momentum on their side.

So lets wait and watch out as IPL embarks on cricket's new pilgrimage!

UNIMPRESSIVE CAPTAINCY BY WARNE YESTERDAY

Yesterday's match: Rajasthan Royals v Royal Challengers Bangalore
My Prediction: Royal Challengers Bangalore
Actual Winner: Royal Challengers Bangalore

Today's Match: Chennai Super Kings v Delhi Daredevils
My Prediction: Chennai Super Kings

My Score: 6 / 11

Kevin Pietersen smashed his way to a 29-ball 62 and has placed RCB in a very comfortable position in the fight for the semi-final spots. The talks of Kevin Pietersen being out of form when England was touring Bangladesh were things of the past... or atleast became things of past as KP started finding the middle of his bat.

I was a little disappointed with Shane Warne's tactics to KP yesterday. I feel he should have brought in Adam Voges to bowl as soon as Pietersen came in to bat. Some would say that 3rd over would be too early for someone like Voges, but then a target of 131 cannot be defended by conventional means either.

An introduction of left arm spin early in his innings would have put KP on his guard straight away. If Warne didn't have enough confidence in Voges, he could have come on himself... even he takes the ball away from a right-hander. By the time Voges was introduced in yesterday's match, KP had already moved on to a 13-ball 28 and then proceeded to smash 3 fours from the 5 balls that he faced from the slow left armer.

But in any case, even if KP had failed, a target of 131 would still have been too low for RR to successfully defend against a batting lineup as strong as that of RCB.

Today's match promises to be a good one. I like both teams... so I am confused which one to cheer for. DD have been running themselves out of the tournament and CSK is on a high after their thumping win in the last match. Since this is their last home match, CSK would want to round things off on a positive note. But then, Gautam Gambhir also wants to play more away games than home games. So, all in all, I am waiting for the clock to strike eight!

KKR'S HAT-TRICK

Yesterday's match 1: Mumbai Indians v Delhi Daredevils
My Prediction: Mumbai Indians
Actual Winner: Mumbai Indians

Yesterday's match 2: Chennai Super Kings v Kolkata Knight Riders
My Prediction: Chennai Super Kings
Actual Winner: Chennai Super Kings

Today's Match: Rajasthan Royals v Royal Challengers Bangalore
My Prediction: Royal Challengers Bangalore

My Score: 5 / 10

KKR is out of the tournament... three consecutive unsuccessful attempts to reach the semi-finals... the only team to not reach the semi-finals of IPL even once in three years! A hat-trick that they certainly did not want to achieve!

I feel sad for Sourav Ganguly - I have always liked his character and had a lot of respect for his fighting abilities. But I am happy that KKR is out - because I do not like Shah Rukh Khan! I hope that he buys all the players that I do not like for the next edition of the IPL - then I can dislike KKR without any guilt feelings!

Finally, KP (I mean Kieron Pollard) justified (to a certain extent) his high-profile bidding! His version of the scoop was baffling! I thought he was all about power... but that scoop just shook me up completely!

The Royals' battle today will be virtually the second successive knockout match in this tournament. Where the RR team will be looking forward to a nice home game, the RCB will be buoyed by the fact that the fortress is not looking as strong as it used to be.

LOVE AFFAIRS OF STEYN AND SEHWAG

Yesterday's match: Deccan Chargers v Royal Challengers Bangalore
My Prediction: Royal Challengers Bangalore
Actual Winner: Deccan Chargers

Today's match 1: Mumbai Indians v Delhi Daredevils
My Prediction: Mumbai Indians

Today's Match 2: Chennai Super Kings v Kolkata Knight Riders
My Prediction: Chennai Super Kings

My Score: 3 / 8

DC scored their third consecutive win in this competition and this one was also their third consecutive win over RCB - winning both their matches this season after the finals last year. Needless to say, this result makes the points table even tighter (if that could be possible) and just as everyone has predicted, teams with better NRR will have a big advantage going ahead.

Dale Steyn bowling was magnificent to watch. He has some kind of a love affair with the VCA Stadium (Jamtha), Nagpur. He got a 10-wicket haul for South Africa at the same stadium in a Test against India in February... and his spell today was a timely reminder to everyone that high-quality fast bowling can still work in this format... it's not all about slower balls and cutters! It was sad that he had to end up on the losing side.

Today's first match will see Virendra Sehwag return to the Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai for the first time after his whirlwind 293 against Sri Lanka. Even Viru has a love affair with venues that have anything to do with 'M'. Mumbai, Multan, Melbourne, Motera, MA Chidambaram Stadium, etc.

With MI already in the semis, it will be interesting to see if they rest any of their key men. DD is in a desperate search of a win and Gambhir has his wish of playing an away game. A win for DD would more or less confirm them in the semis as well - because of their NRR. But MI would not want to lose their momentum.

The second match between CSK and KKR is a virtual knock-out match (even though both teams will still be in with a chance after losing). CSK look a lot better side... and KKR seem to be struggling with their combinations and belief to win.

What a pity that the two matches that deserved a weekend scheduling are going to be played on a Tuesday!

THE STORY OF A 'TEST' SIDE

Yesterday's match 1: Deccan Chargers v Chennai Super Kings
My Prediction: Deccan Chargers
Actual Winner: Deccan Chargers

Yesterday's match 2: Royal Challengers Bangalore v Kolkata Knight Riders
My Prediction: Royal Challengers Bangalore
Actual Winner: Royal Challengers Bangalore

Today's Match 1: Delhi Daredevils v Kings XI Punjab
My Prediction: Delhi Daredevils

Today's Match 2: Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians
My Prediction: Rajasthan Royals

My Score: 3 / 5.

Yesterday, just before the toss before the 2nd match, Sourav Ganguly was asked what was his side's track record on that ground (M.A. Chidambaram Stadium, Bangalore). He said: "Played one, won one."

So I tried to recall what had happenned in 2008 between RCB and KKR at Bangalore. And then I realised - the first ever IPL match - the Brendon McCullum 150 - the 140 run thrashing of a "Test" team.

The tables have turned completely. RCB is no more a "Test" team. KKR has forgotten what it is like to win comprehensively. And RCB is more likely to finish 2nd from top in the points table - rather than 2nd from bottom.

With his dismissal yesterday, McCullum now has an IPL average at Bangalore - an average of 203. But he could do nothing this time to help KKR win, which puts them in a precarious position in respect of the semi-final qualification spot.

The second match today will be of great importance for the semi-final race. A win for MI will seal their place and virtually oust RR. On the other hand, a win for RR will not only help them take a huge step ahead, but also cause a lot of anxiety in the MI camp.

Even though I am a supporter of MI, I have predicted a RR win today because of the fact that they have never lost a single match in Jaipur. They have a brilliant record on that ground - and seem to be peaking at this moment.

Still, I will keep hoping that by the end of this day, one semi-final spot will be taken up.

EMPTY STANDS AND LOO

Yesterday's match: Kings XI Punjab v Mumbai Indians
My Prediction: Mumbai Indians
Actual Winner: Kings XI Punjab

Today's Match 1: Deccan Chargers v Chennai Super Kings
My Prediction: Deccan Chargers

Today's Match 2: Royal Challengers Bangalore v Kolkata Knight Riders
My Prediction: Royal Challengers Bangalore


MI has gotten into a losing streak (I know it's only two in a row now, but their next match is against RR at Jaipur - and RR has NEVER lost a match at Jaipur). Yesterday's result is not going to affect the table in any way, but KXIP has issued a warning to all their remaining opponents that they are going to try and upset a few parties.

The afternoon match today between DC and CSK will be played at Nagpur. Who the hell plays in the afternoon at Nagpur? Its 41 degree celcius and DRY out there. It is the most dry part of India and the 'hot winds' that blow in the afternoon over there (called 'Loo Winds') can really knock you out. All I can say is best luck to DC and CSK boys!

I hope Lalit Modi sees this match and realises that the attendance is 'very poor' at the neutral-Nagpur. It might be one of the best grounds in the country with great facilities, but it is very poorly located. It is far away from the city of Nagpur and takes a long time to reach there. Add to that the fact that it is hosting home matches for DC, who do not have a single big Indian star in their ranks. I mean, for God's sake, the Nagpur crowd is not going to come out in this kind of heat to watch a neutral game and support the likes of Rohit Sharma and RP Singh.

RCB and KKR will have much better and 'playable' conditions later in the evening at Bangalore. Both teams need wins for varying reasons - RCB to arrest their loss of momentum and KKR to take another step towards the semis. If KKR manage a win, RCB will truly need to worry about their semi-final spot. Kevin Pietersen must be wondering why his presence affects the RCB squad's performance so adversely!

APR 25: IPL FINALS - MI v DD

Have a look at this - the IPL Points Table. The RR - KXIP clash has just gotten over, with the home side continuing their golden 'home' run at Jaipur - streamrolling KXIP by 9 wickets with 5 overs to spare.

Now, I just thought of stepping into the shoes of Nostradamus and find out who will win this IPL. So, there you go:

Apr 07 - KKR v DD
Apr 08 - RCB v DC
Apr 09 - KXIP v MI
Apr 10 - DC v CSK
Apr 10 - RCB v KKR
Apr 11 - DD v KXIP
Apr 11 - RR v MI
Apr 12 - DC v RCB
Apr 13 - MI v DD
Apr 13 - CSK v KKR
Apr 14 - RR v RCB
Apr 15 - CSK v DD
Apr 16 - KXIP v DC
Apr 17 - RCB v MI
Apr 17 - KKR v RR
Apr 18 - KXIP v CSK
Apr 18 - DD v DC
Apr 19 - KKR v MI

The top-4 will then look like this: 1. MI - 22 points; 2. DD - 18 points; 3. RCB - 16 points; 4. CSK - 16 points. So the semi-final fixtures will be:

Apr 21 - 1st Semi Final - MI v CSK
Apr 22 - 2nd Semi Final - DD v RCB

Apr 24 - 3rd Place Playoff - RCB v CSK
Apr 25 - Finals - Mumbai Indians v Delhi Daredevils

So there you go... Mumbai Indians will win the IPL this year (something I have been saying every year). But c'mon, what a final this would be! The biggest domestic rivalry in India reignited at a bigger stage! Awesome!

CSK HAS MOTIVATION, BUT IS MI TOO STRONG?

Tonight’s encounter at the M.A. Chidambaram Stadium promises to be a mouth-watering clash. An in-form Chennai Super Kings side takes on the best team of the tournament so far, Mumbai Indians.

But then, even the last match at Ferozeshah Kotla, New Delhi – between Delhi Daredevils and Royal Challengers Bangalore – had promised a lot. In the end, it turned out to be pretty easy win for the hosts. I have a feeling that the CSK v MI match will be a better contest because I don’t expect MS Dhoni or Sachin Tendulkar to make any selection error like the one made by Anil Kumble at Kotla.

Last time when these two teams met, Suresh Raina played a brilliant knock, well-supported by S Badrinath. MI’s bowling, after grabbing the 2 early wickets, looked toothless (for once in the tournament). However, MI’s batting, led by the Master, chased down a seemingly daunting target of 181 with consummate ease. Sachin Tendulkar has hit only 1 six in this tournament thus far, and it came in that particular match against Muttiah Muralitharan when he danced down the track and deposited the wily Lankan over long-on boundary.

The hosts have a much better look to their squad now with the addition of Doug Bollinger. His much-talked-about ability to hurry on to the batsmen caused a lot of discomfort to the RR batsmen, and effectively won the match for CSK. I don’t know if MS Dhoni has thought about dropping Matthew Hayden. Apart from that one blistering innings with the Mongoose, he has not contributed a lot at the top. Hayden can be replaced by Mike Hussey, who is also an exceptional fielder – certainly much better than Hayden in the field. Hayden’s absence from the team might even help in dousing the competitive spirit of Harbhajan Singh, who just loves competing against this and few other particular Aussies.

The visitors, on the other hand, have a very settled look to their squad. They have always found someone who raised his hand up during sticky situations and got them out of it. The youngsters have fired well, and the bowling attack is one of the best in this tournament. However, CSK will be buoyed by the fact that MI has looked fallible in the last few matches. That they have managed to come out on top of such situations is a different matter altogether.

Chepauk, the stadium as well as the crowd, has always been kind to Sachin Tendulkar and Harbhajan Singh. But then, Twenty20 is a completely different cup of tea. The motivation is a lot more for the hosts, who not only want to enter the top-4 once again, but also seek revenge for their defeat at Brabourne Stadium. But then, once SRT has the bat in his hands, he does not need to search anywhere for motivation. It’s there within.

DOSA OR SAMBHAR - WHAT'S THE SECRET?

The chef in the Chennai Super Kings team has been adding a secret ingredient in Murali Vijay's dosas over the past few days. How else do you explain 11 sixes from his blade, 5 of them against the Aussie trio of Tait, Warne and Watson? If not the dosa, it must have been the sambhar then!

A 56-ball 127 from Vijay - the only bowler to go for less than 12 an over against him was Shane Warne. 469 runs in 40 overs bowled at Chepauk - and the irony is that I thought that it would be a slightly slow pitch. I couldn't have read it any worse!

Morkel was good... long time since we saw him playing the way he did today. His sixes are very pleasing to the eyes - they are clean and he is a leftie. And spare a thought for Naman Ojha. He has been performing consistently, was a part of the list of 30 probables squad of India for World Twenty20 Championship, and has been quietly strengthening his CV. He really deserved a century today... but its good he did not get it. I really want youngsters like him to get their milestones like 1st century or 1st 5-wicket haul in a winning cause.

But the star of the day, other than Vijay obviously, was Doug Bollinger. Flying in from the southern hemisphere just 24 hours ago, he was up and running on the field, conceding just 3.75 runs per over in a match where the average run rate was 11.725 runs per over (more than 3 times Dougie's rate). Add to that the catch-hop-skip-jump-catch-again catch he took of Yusuf Pathan, and he virtually sealed the deal for his new yellow jersey.

And the final note on the next match: Mumbai Indians v Deccan Chargers at Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai. MI is batting first after winning the toss. I hope SRT gets his 50-odd runs for the orange cap... so that atleast we will get to see him wearing the orange while playing, and not just during the presentation ceremony.