THANK YOU, VVS!

Vangipurappu Venkata Sai Laxman. Or Very Very Special Laxman. Whatever name you prefer!

Personally, I don't remember much of VVS Laxman before the 281. I am quite sure a lot of people don't. In fact, pre-281, I can count my memories of him on my fingertips. I do remember reading about the Sydney hundred in 2000 (first one of that love affair with the ground) in newspapers, and I remember him opening against Pakistan in 1999. Even then, I remember more of his opening partner Sadagoppan Ramesh than him from that series.

Possibly the most lasting memory for me of VVS Laxman's pre-281 career for me is that moment when he took Wasim Akram's catch to seal Anil Kumble's 10 for 74. But post that 281, it all changed. The memories are so many that it's hard to pick one out that stands mightily above the rest.

That innings of 281 itself should unquestionably rank amongst the best ever played by any batsman in the world through the history of cricket. It marked the creation of a clear transitional divide between eras in Indian cricket. From Day 4 of that Eden Gardens Test (14th March 2001) to the day India won the World Cup again (2nd April 2011) - it was 10 years and 19 days of wondrous joy for the Indian cricket followers. For sure, there were troughs too, but none would be talked of much in hindsight when this era is looked at in its entirety henceforth.

I could not watch that innings of 281 live - neither that match, nor that series. I lived in a hostel back then, and all the cricket I followed was over the All India Radio and the newspapers. And following that match on the radio was an emotional turbulence of enormous proportions. First, there was frustration over the first 2 days (though there was the brief delight late on Day 1 when Harbhajan Singh claimed a hat-trick), then resignation on the 3rd day, then the feeling of small joys as Day 4 progressed that turned into one of hope by the time it ended... and then it ended with euphoria on Day 5. All of it possible because of three men - Harbhajan Singh, Rahul Dravid and VVS Laxman.

Day 4 of that Test match was the day I learnt a new word in Hindi - 'kalai'. I heard it so many times over the day uttered by the radio commentators, that mid-way through the day, I had to ask someone what it meant, and finally understood it meant 'wrist'. That was also the day I came closest to being caught sneaking in a portable 'Walkman with Radio' inside the classroom (which I often did). Thankfully, I escaped with the help of a couple of friends who were being supplied the scores by me, and we carried on through the day as Laxman and Dravid carried on their vigil.

The first time that I remember watching VVS Laxman bat in Test cricket after that 281, was in West Indies - Port of Spain 2002. In a largely forgotten 2nd innings effort, Laxman scored 70-odd and in the company of Sourav Ganguly, ensured a 300+ target for the West Indies, which eventually proved enough. If my memory serves me right, when he got out, he had ensured a target of 300+, which could not be stretched much further as the tail collapsed.

Post 2004, there are many memories - Mumbai 2004 (vs. Australia), Johannesburg 2006, Delhi 2007 (vs. Pakistan), Sydney 2008, Perth 2008, Kolkata 2010 (vs. South Africa), Colombo 2010, Mohali 2010 (vs. Australia), Durban 2010 and Bridgetown 2011 stand out. What's more, all but two of them came in Indian wins - and both those should have been Indian wins but for bad umpiring (Sydney 2008) and bad weather (Bridgetown 2011).

But these scores are just numbers - they will be archived and brought up in future in debates and analyses. What they can never convey was the art called VVS Laxman's batting. It was wizardry of the highest levels, and could leave not just the spectators, but even his opponents mesmerised. I do not remember Azharuddin much at the peak of his career for I was very young back then, but I am sure he couldn't have been any 'wristy-er' than VVS Laxman - it just seems humanly impossible.

Those flicks to leg off balls way outside the line of off-stump aside, I will always miss those drives through the cover off spinners where the left leg moved right to the pitch of the ball and the right leg moved sideways as he completed the movement to finish the shot with a flourish. I have seen many beautiful cover drives played and will see many more in future, but whenever I see one finish with the back leg moving sideways in flourish, I am always going to remember VVS Laxman.

While Laxman did have a decent couple of years in ODI cricket, I will always imagine him as a smiling character in white who, when not batting, would be chirping away with his teammates at second slip or gully or at a catching position for a drive on either side of the pitch. While we all celebrate his batting mastery (or should I call it 'wizardry' again), I wouldn't want to overlook the fact that he was a fine catcher too. It will be an oft-overlooked fact that he has 135 catches too in Test cricket. In his youth, he fielded well at short leg and other close-in positions too, and it's only recently that he became a liability in the field.

Another one of the endearing memories would be one of Laxman always in the balcony of the dressing room, the widest smile on the face, whenever the time came to celebrate a teammate reaching a hundred or other such milestone. If he wasn't the non-striker, he would always invariably be there to salute his teammate and share that joy.

Oh VVS, thou shalt be missed dearly. But thank you! Thank you for the joy of your batting!

WELL PLAYED, RAHUL DRAVID!

Rahul Dravid. The Wall. With a counting ticker of runs that will tick no more.

I have a very weird association with Rahul Sharad Dravid. I was a child when he made his debut in 1996. Over that period in late-1990s, a lot of girls became instantaneous fan of this new chocolate boy in the Indian cricket team. My sister was one of them, and she even bought a couple of posters of him to put up on the walls of our shared room. As an irksome brother, it was my moral duty to counter any action of my sister!

So I responded by cutting a large newspaper print poster of Sourav Ganguly and sticking it in my cupboard. Had my sister not been almost six years older than I was, I might well have stuck the Ganguly cut-out over the Dravid poster. For the record, I was a bigger fan of Sachin Tendulkar (back then and now), but Ganguly was the more immediate contemporary of Dravid then.

For a period of about a year during 1998-99, my sister went to the USA and allowed me the chance of watching Rahul Dravid’s cricket with a more objective eye. It also helped that it was about the time when I had started understanding cricket better and started following it more passionately. And most importantly, in that span of time, Dravid played some glorious knocks. I watched some of them live, followed some of them over print media, and gradually came to the opinion that this man is a promising cricketer – a great one in the making.

I remember that century in each innings performance at Hamilton early in 1999 against New Zealand that I had followed in the newspaper and over 7 pm Doordarshan news, when the news was about half-a-day old. It was the first time an Indian had managed such a feat since Sunil Gavaskar had done it (for the third time) late in 1978. And then I also remember that incredible run in the World Cup 1999 in England where he ended up as the highest run-scorer of all. Those two back-to-back centuries against Kenya (Bristol) and Sri Lanka (Taunton) are also remembered, despite the fact that he was not the highest run-scorer for the team in either of those two innings! He scored his top-4 ODI scores in the year 1999, and 6 of his 12 career ODI tons.

Late in 1999, he scored his only 150+ score in an ODI, only to be outscored by a teammate yet again. Some would say ‘the story of his career’! I disagree… I say it was a storyline that threatened to become his tale before he changed the script completely. He may have been outscored yet again by teammates during his 2001 knocks against Australia of 180 (Kolkata second innings) and 81 (Chennai first innings), but those contributions were recognised very well for they well worth their weight in gold. I remember listening to Hindi radio commentary about the emotional gestures that he made on reaching that hundred at Eden Gardens, and thinking that the commentator must have gone nuts!

The next time after that innings that I remember Dravid showing any emotions on the cricket field was flashing a simple smile after pulling Waqar Younis for a four to seal an Indian win over Pakistan in the World Cup 2003. But before that comes that 2002 tour of England – a tour that elevated Dravid as a member-elect of the pantheon of Indian batting legends – a membership that he confirmed with that knock of 233 (and another 72* for good measure) at Adelaide a year and a half later. During this time, he even kept wickets for India in the ODI squad and was the rock on which Ganguly built the church called Team India.

He has scored many brilliant knocks since then, including his highest Test score of 270 against Pakistan at Rawalpindi in 2004 in the Third Test of the three-Test series locked at 1-1. But for me, like many others, nothing would ever beat Leeds 2002 and Adelaide 2003.

He won the ICC Cricketer of the Year Award in its inaugural year with great performances that continued up to 2006. He even acquired the captaincy of the Indian cricket team in that period. And that was my biggest problem with the career of Rahul Dravid. He led India to Test series wins in the West Indies (2006) and England (2007), and even led over a streak of 18 consecutive ODI wins while batting second... but I never thought him to be as good a successor to Sourav Ganguly's captaincy as would have been ideal. For some explicable as well as inexplicable reasons that I don't want to venture into at the moment, I did not believe he was a very good 'captaincy material'. That is purely my opinion, and quite possibly, it is in someway influenced by India's performance in the World Cup 2007.

In respect of his captaincy alone, the words of Mark Antony said at Julius Caesar's funeral in the great Shakespearean play seem quite apt: "The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones." So let it be with Dravid!

When his form dipped through 2007 and later years, and when his runs came only against Bangladesh, New Zealand and Sri Lanka (at home), I did feel that he should have retired back then. Arguably, he managed to keep his place only due to the fact that the rest of the team was able to perform well and dare I say it, 'carry' him. It allowed him a chance for one final resurgence that began in the West Indies and continued to England in 2011. Though it was not a good time for the team, Rahul Dravid batted like the Rahul Dravid of yesteryears.

The failures of the Indian team over 2011 and 2012, as well as Dravid's own failures from 2007 to 2010, will take nothing away from the fact that he is indeed amongst the best Indian batsmen that have ever played the game - and it is quite a list! As he bid farewell today and my Twitter timeline went dewy-eyed with the announcement, it was time to sit back and reflect on what has been a wonderful era for Indian cricket. Now, only two cogs remain from the giant wheel that helped roll Indian cricket forward over the last decade... and this latest cog to call it a day has well and truly deserved his name to be spoken with respect and dignity!

Thank you Rahul Dravid for your contribution to Indian cricket, and wish you the very best for all your future ventures!

PUTTING THIS TWENTY20 WIN IN PERSPECTIVE

India's win over Australia at the MCG in the second Twenty20 International was the first away win in an international match for India since 23rd June 2011, which was the 4th day of the First Test on the tour of West Indies. That is a gap of a whopping 225 days!

Since the turn of the millennium, this was just the 4th occasion when India has had to wait for more than 200 days for an away (including neutral matches) win. The earlier three occasions were:

• From 13th November 2000 (Test win over Bangladesh at Dhaka) to 10th June 2001 (Test win over Zimbabwe at Harare) - 209 days.
• From 16th April 2003 (ODI win over Bangladesh at Dhaka) to 16th December 2003 (Test win over Australia at Adelaide) - 244 days.
• From 27th December 2004 (ODI win over Bangladesh at Dhaka) to 30th July 2005 (ODI win over West Indies at Dambulla) - 216 days.

But while these numbers of over 200 days may look very large at first, none of those droughts were half as bad as the recently-ended one! In the 209-day gap of 2000-01, there was no away match played by India. That gap was a result of scheduling, not performances! In the 244-day gap of 2003, India played just 2 neutral ODIs against South Africa at Bangladesh (1 lost and 1 no result) and 1 Test against Australia (draw) at Brisbane. And in the 216-day gap of 2004-05, India played and lost just one ODI against Sri Lanka at Dambulla.

However, in this recently-ended drought of 225 days, India played 10 Tests (losing 8, drawing 2), 2 Twenty20 Internationals (lost both), and 5 ODIs (3 lost, 1 tied and 1 no result). That is a run of 17 win-less away internationals!

The most staggering fact is this - after the first ever away win against New Zealand at Dunedin Test of February 1968, India has never had a win-less streak of away international matches as big as this 17-match one! India played 43 away Test matches from June 1932 to January 1968 without a win, which remains India's longest win-less streak in away international matches, but since then, the largest one was the one that ended a few hours ago!

(P.S.: And since we are talking numbers, this is the 400th post on CRIC - SIS.)

COMPARING THE TWO HORROR TOURS

Taking a leaf out of Stuart Broad's book!

This one's headed the same way as the last one... and it is unbelievably painful to watch it happen. Mad hope kept flickering up every now and again, but there was always an air of inevitability even when there was some promise being shown.

Which tour is more depressing as a cricket viewer? I really have no idea, and even if I discover some way of measuring my depression, I would really not be interested in doing so. But since we are in the midst of the Australian tour, I want to touch upon certain points that make me really afraid of what's happening and what more might happen.

During the tour of England, a lot of things went wrong for India. It was believed that if some of those things had gone right, India would not have suffered the embarrassment of a whitewash. In the period between the England tour and the Australian tour, there were a few steps taken that were seemingly lessons from the former. Yet, here we are... facing the very same 4-0 scoreline against an opponent that is definitely not as good as England had been!

So what were the excuses that could have been passed off as reasons for the England debacle?

ZAHEER KHAN LIMPING OUT

India received the biggest blow possible on the very first day of the Test series in England, when Zaheer Khan limped back into the dressing room clutching his hamstring muscles after having picked up the wickets of both the English openers (and having a catch dropped of their No. 3 in the slips) by soundly working them over. The absence of Zaheer Khan for the rest of the tour was considered to be one of the biggest factors of India's losses there by all and sundry.

But now, in hindsight, one wonders how much of a difference would he really have made! He has been available for all the 3 Test matches in Australia, and while he has bowled well himself, India's attack really has not looked as threatening as it should have considering the personnel present. One might say that the Zaheer-led bowling attack has done commendably except for that one period spanning over two Tests in different time zones where they conceded 836 runs for just 1 wicket, but that is a hollow argument!

The only conclusion that can be drawn after watching India bowl in the 7 losses thus far is that with or without Zaheer Khan, the bowling has just not been good enough to get the team within sights of a victory! While their opponents have had bowlers (Stuart Broad and Peter Siddle being prime examples) who have altered their bowling lengths to gain impressive rewards, the Indian team continue to field a bowler (read Ishant Sharma) whose lengths have received sound punishment and have shown no signs of changing.

INJURIES IN BATTING

In England, India was hampered by lack of fit personnel even at the top of the batting lineup. Sehwag was unfit for the first two Tests, and did not look fit enough even in his return for the last two Tests. Gambhir suffered injuries during the series. Tendulkar had to play an innings battling fever. Yuvraj Singh got injured during the series.

In Australia, there have been no such problems. Sehwag came in completely fit having scored the highest score by a batsman in ODIs, and Gambhir too came in fully fit and having recovered a bit of his lost touch against the West Indies at home. And even before the series started, there was more or less a certainty that Virat Kohli would be given a decent run at the No. 6 spot. So as a result, India played an unchanged top-7 in all three Tests... and floundered in each one of them!

The consistent failures of the Indian batting unit have been very baffling and difficult to explain. These men have brilliant records and have been proven performers in the past even in tough away conditions too. With these 7 losses, voices have grown loud that these batting stalwarts are old now, and their age is showing up in their batting. Dravid's spree of bowled dismissals are explained as a result of slowing reflexes.

These very same men had had wonderful runs with the bat in not too distant a past, and back then, they were being described as fine wine - getting better with age. Now, they are supposedly getting slower with age. It's the easiest way of calling for their heads, I suppose!

While it is obvious that sooner rather than later, these men will have to make way for a younger generation of batsmen, one needs to realise that age has hardly been a factor in their undoing. Yes, they have failed... failed in 7 consecutive away Tests! But I honestly believe that this failure has been more due to much braver (read fuller) bowling from the opposition bowlers in helpful conditions. Since the Indian bowlers have not been able to replicate such consistency in bowling, the opposition batsmen have been made to look much better than their Indian counterparts, which may not be the genuine case!

LACK OF PREPARATION

In England, lack of acclimatisation and preparation in those conditions was considered to be a major factor in the losses. The Indian team landed in England after the Caribbean tour less than 10 complete days before the start of the first Test. They played just one 3-day warm-up game before the first Test, and looked ill at ease in conditions that were completely different from the ones they are accustomed to.

For the Australian tour, certain players reached Down Under more than two weeks before the first Test, and the others reached about 12 days prior. The preparation involved one 3-day game and one 2-day game. No player was coming in unfit or with the lack of match practice. In fact, India's biggest concern was over the fitness of Zaheer Khan... but he too played two Ranji games before playing a warm-up match in Australia.

After the first Test at MCG, Dhoni said that India have always been poor starters. It was depressing to see him hide behind that age-old facade... while the truth remains that the first Test was the one where the team was the most competitive during this tour, and had genuine chances of a win! Since then, it has all been downhill.

SCHEDULING

The IPL got a lot of flak after the England disaster, because of the way it disrupted cricket schedules. While the rest before the Australian tour for the team was hardly any better, but they were at home in an ODI series. This meant that the core of India's middle order was well rested and those who were participating in the ODI series were doing so to gain match fitness, practice or cement their spots in the Test team.

The scheduling also received a lot of flak because of the inadequate acclimatisation factor, as touched upon in the previous point. Yet no such reasons can be passed off here in Australia. The only conclusion that I can draw is that the team has actually been outplayed on the field, and any changes in the external factors would hardly have made any difference to the eventual result!



In England, the Indian team was beaten by a deserving side functioning at the top of its game. All the reasons / excuses that were put up by the fans defending the team were nothing but a protective shield to prevent any adverse after-effect of that shocking loss! Therefore, it was doubly depressing to see that protective shield blown apart piece-by-piece in a systematic fashion to leave the team and the fans nakedly exposed and vulnerable.

Every now and again, time calls for change. For the Indian team, there had been confusion over the past couple of years about when exactly is that time. Well, there is no such confusion now! That time for change has come, and a lot of rebuilding needs to be done. There will be more losses on the way, and more pain to be endured. But what needs to be done must be done!

MS DHONI'S JEKYLL AND HYDE SYNDROME

MS Dhoni has received a lot of flak over his field placements and defensive captaincy strategies over the past week at SCG. This is not the first time that his field settings have left cricket watchers frustrated in muted agony. Some just shrug their shoulders and say that it's become a part of the modern-day captaincy, while others grit their teeth and wonder who-the-hell ever called Dhoni an attacking captain!

I find Dhoni strange and difficult to understand. Sometimes, his field placements and other strategies are so good that you feel the need to applaud him even if they do not work out the way they were intended... and at other times, they are so lousy that you question whether you are watching the right match!

Less than 10 months ago, on 24th March 2011, India played the Quarterfinals of the ICC World Cup 2011 against the then three-time defending champions Australia at Ahmedabad's Sardar Patel Stadium. In that match, Dhoni had attacked like I have never seen him do before. He had a fielder at silly point even on Yuvraj Singh's bowling in the 39th over of the Australian innings to Ricky Ponting, who was batting fluently in his 60s and 70s. In fact, Ponting had either a short square leg or a silly point virtually every time he faced a spinner till he was in his 70s.

Those attacking field placements may not have directly earned India any wickets, but they surely sent a statement of intent to the opposition. One might argue that Michael Clarke's horrendous attempt at slog sweeping Yuvraj Singh might have been caused by the attacking field settings (even he had a slip for him in the 31st over bowled by Yuvraj Singh), but that is arguable both ways.

Even in the Semi-finals against Pakistan at Mohali, I was impressed by the fielding positions he had set. The fielders were within the 30-yard circle were up very close, in order to stop the singles that result if they are fielding on the edge of the circle. On the other hand, the fielders in the deep were right on the boundary line, in order to cover as much ground as possible to prevent a boundary. For the gaps in the middle, he relied on the lack of athleticism of Asian batsmen for converting ones-into-twos. That was quite brilliant to watch as the pressure built on Pakistan, with Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq almost stalling their progress in the middle overs.

Post the World Cup win, when I had done a post on the main architects of India's World Cup triumph, I focused more on Dhoni's captaincy in the knock-out matches than his knock in the World Cup final. Those kind of knocks when India is chasing a target in ODI cricket are a Dhoni-specialty, but that brand of attacking captaincy as we witnessed in India's last three World Cup matches was a pleasant change.

And now with the benefit of hindsight, I can say that it indeed was just a "pleasant change". I had secretly hoped that Dhoni might have turned over a new leaf during the World Cup, and we would see a more attacking Indian captain post that win. The first crack in that hope came with the draw at Dominica. The England tour also a big question mark, but to be fair to Dhoni, he never really had a bowling unit there with whom he could attack well.

But here in Australia, that reasoning does not hold good. Sehwag claimed at Melbourne that the current pace-bowling unit is the best he has ever played with. Even if that assertion is over-the-top, there is no denying that this indeed is a very good bowling unit that India is carrying (obviously when fully fit). They may have flopped miserably at SCG with only 4 wickets to their name (reminds me of the Centurion Test on India's 2010-11 tour of South Africa), but they are the very same bowlers who grabbed 20 Australian wickets at MCG.

It can be arguably held that a bit less defensiveness of Dhoni's part might have helped the bowlers in a big way. It wouldn't have allowed the Australian tail to wag as much as it did at MCG, which could (and I am just saying COULD) have altered the result there... and while at SCG, the result may not have changed, but there was definitely a scope for a little more attacking cricket when Ponting and Clarke were early in their partnership. Even when their association had crossed a 100-run mark, Australia was still trailing India (albeit not by much). I would have expected a truly-attacking captain to use that slender margin of lead to continue attacking rather than having a sweeper cover and a deep square leg. It just so happens that because of the size of the SCG, Dhoni continued to be unable to stop the flow of Australian boundaries and runs.

I wonder which 'alter' of Dhoni's multiple-personality will need to be strengthened to see him attack once again like he did at the World Cup!

THE WORLD CUP REMEMBERED

Just a few hours remain for 2011 to end in my part of the world, and as I looks back at it, the biggest and the most lasting memory remains that of the World Cup 2011 hosted by India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh from 19th February to 2nd April.

I was planning to write a post on my sporting memories of 2011... but since so many of them were coming from this one particular event, I thought I should first compile my World Cup memories, and then proceed to the sporting memories of 2011. So here are my top 10 memories from the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011:

1. Six And The Celebrations

The obvious first - the six that finished the World Cup! MS Dhoni's strike to win the World Cup finals and the celebrations that followed that hit shall remain memories to last a lifetime... and not just till the end of the year! Those images were magical and I can still recall them vividly - Yuvraj Singh was sobbing uncontrollably, Sachin Tendulkar was being carried around the ground on his teammates' shoulders, Virat Kohli's quote, and the celebrations once MS Dhoni received the trophy from ICC President Sharad Pawar! Cricket had never before been so emotional!

2. Ponting's Last Masterpiece

It was an eagerly anticipated match - the 2nd Quarterfinal between India and Australia at Sardar Patel Stadium, Ahmedabad. And though it came for a losing cause, Ricky Ponting played an innings befitting his calibre! It was virtually a risk-free masterclass century that guided Australia to a competitive first innings score of 259. There were other moments in this match that still remain fresh in my memory - the winning hit by Yuvraj Singh, Suresh Raina's first major contribution in the World Cup, Zaheer Khan's knuckle ball to bowl Michael Hussey, et cetera. But it was that Ponting hundred, eventually his last innings as the captain of Australia, that stands out... for it could scarcely have been any better!

3. Purple-Headed Destroyer

Yes, that is what he did - he destroyed them! Kevin O'Brien came to the crease in Ireland's match against England when his team was 106 for 4 in the 23rd over, and then saw them slump to 111 for 5 in the 25th over. Chasing a target of 328 to win at Bangalore, Ireland had no chance. But no one told this to Kevin O'Brien! He needed just 50 balls to reach his 100... the fastest ever in World Cup history! From the time he came to bat till the time he reached his 100, Ireland scored more than 6 runs in all but 3 overs. And when he got out on a 63-ball 113 with 6 sixes and 13 fours, they were well on their way to cause what was the biggest upset of the event. The Irish veteran Trent Johnston came at the fall of O'Brien's wicket and was present at the end when the win was sealed... just as he'd been there to hit the winning runs against Pakistan four years ago to cause their other big upset in World Cups!

4. #MOAG - Mother Of All Games

When India beat West Indies in the last league match, everyone knew that there was a chance of an India-Pakistan semi-finals at Mohali. And when India beat Australia at Ahmedabad, it was confirmed... a good 6 days before the match! A scramble for tickets, an excited build-up, cricket diplomacy in action, and the day finally arrived! The quality of cricket was not the best, but the occasion and the crowd more than made up for it. Virender Sehwag's attack on Umar Gul, the chances to Sachin Tendulkar en route to 85, Wahab Roaz's ball to get Yuvraj Singh for a golden duck, Suresh Raina's finish, Umar Akmal's attack before getting bowled out to Harbhajan Singh, and then the finish when Misbah-ul-Haq skied a catch to Virat Kohli off Zaheer Khan - some of the moments that still linger from the Mother Of All Games.

5. Muralitharan's Last Match In Sri Lanka

He was carried on his teammates' shoulders around the ground after the semi-finals had been won by Sri Lanka against New Zealand. Arguably Sri Lanka's greatest cricketer ever, Muttiah Muralitharan played his part in the World Cup for Sri Lanka. His final over in international cricket in Sri Lanka was a treat to watch too. Starting from around the wicket, he switched to over the wicket for the last few balls... and on his very last delivery, trapped Scott Styris plumb in front with a massively-turning off-break to finish off his home career in style. What a cricketer!

6. Tied At 338

The match should have been held at Kolkata, but had to be shifted to Bangalore. After a scramble for tickets where a few fans got hurt, the match began and the crowd loved it. Sachin Tendulkar hit a sublime century, which included 5 sixes - 2 of those came off consecutive Graeme Swann deliveries as he started a new spell. It was a message to the English skipper Andrew Strauss that his best bowler means nothing to him! Strauss took that message to heart as he produced his own masterclass innings of 158 after Tim Bresnan had cleaned the Indian tail with a 5-for. It took a beauty from Zaheer Khan to remove Strauss and bring India back into the match with 2 other wickets. Apart from the last ball single that resulted in a tie, there was another moment to remember from this World Cup - Munaf Patel's blinder (no pun intended) to remove Kevin Pietersen and Ian Bell's LBW that wasn't! The infamous 2.50 meter rule denied Yuvraj Singh the wicket of Ian Bell after the field umpire Billy Bowden decided not to overturn his original not out call.

7. Ross Taylor Massacre

He was reprieved - twice! Both times by Kamran Akmal off Shoaib Akhtar's bowling. He made them pay! Ross Taylor, who was not in the best of form, capitalised on those errors by Kamran Akmal (which earned him a lot of jokes on Twitter) and smashed a brilliant century against Pakistan that included some violent hitting at the end. His ferocious hitting resulted in 28 runs being leaked off Shoaib Akhtar's last over and 30 runs off Abdul Razzaq's. Helped by Jacob Oram at the other end, Taylor was ferocious as they compiled an 80-odd run partnership at the speed of light! When Kamran Akmal's turn came to bat, he edged one to Ross Taylor at slip... and the Kiwi was in no mood to return Akmal's favours earlier that day! He grabbed the ball in his hands and the Black Caps celebrated.

8. The Whirlwind Start

It was arguably the best bowling line-up of the World Cup they were facing. The best fast bowler of the present era was to start the proceedings. None of that mattered! Virender Sehwag and Sachin Tendulkar began in a hurry... sprinting away to a 100 in just the 12th over. Tendulkar pulled South Africa's best bowler Dale Steyn for a six behind square leg after Sehwag had typically started the innings with a first-ball boundary. Sehwag scored a 73, Tendulkar 111 and Gautam Gambhir too compiled a 69 before the middle and lower order just gave away, as 9 wickets fell for 29 runs. The fact that India did not even manage to bat the entire 50 overs, falling short by 8 balls, eventually proved to be decisive as South Africa managed to seal a win thanks to Robin Peterson's cameo at the end!

9. Pakistan End Australia's Streak

Pakistan was the last team that had beaten Australia in a World Cup match. That had happened way back in 1999. Since then Australia had been triple World Champions and were looking to continue that streak when they faced Pakistan in their Group A match at Colombo. Umar Gul bowled beautifully and Kamran Akmal managed 3 catches as Australia was bowled out for 176. Then a young Pakistani batsman Asad Shafiq played a mature hand aided by the veteran Younis Khan, followed by another youngster Umar Akmal providing the finishing touches. A big performance was needed to finish off Australia's big unbeaten run in the World Cup... and that is just what Pakistan delivered!

10. England Keep Us Entertained

First, they almost goofed up against the Netherlands. Then they did the inconceivable against India as the match ended in a tie. Then they actually goofed up against the Irish, followed by snatching a win from the jaws of defeat against South Africa. Not satisfied, they then snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Bangladesh before winning their most convincing win against West Indies - by 18 big runs! Lots of flashes of memory come to mind from England's World Cup campaign - Ryan ten Doeschate's magnificent hundred at Nagpur, some stuff already mentioned above from the India and Ireland matches at Bangalore, Robin Peterson's opening over and Stuart Broad's finish at Chennai, and of course the celebrations after Mahmudullah's and Shafiul Islam's rescue act at Chittagong... England single-handedly kept Group B alive!


There were lots of other moments to remember... Sehwag deciding to bat through the innings and almost doing so in his 175 at the World Cup opener, Chris Mpofu's rocket throw to run out Ricky Ponting that infuriated him to break a TV, Pakistan's tight win over Sri Lanka, Kemar Roach's and Lasith Malinga's hat-tricks against the Netherlands and Kenya respectively, West Indies skittle out Bangladesh for 58, an unknown Canadian teenager Hiral Patel's attack on the Australian pace trio as Canada scored 62 in their first 6 overs, Zimbabweans applauding and shaking hands with Steve Tikolo after the Kenyan legend was dismissed in his final match, and South Africa's choke against New Zealand amongst others.

NOSTALGIA

My mind goes back to that morning 8 years and 10 days ago. 16th December 2003. I was 15, had just finished a class at my boarding school, and rushed out as it ended to find my Physics professor. I knew he would have the score.

When I found him, I did not need to ask. I knew. His smile (and he rarely smiled!) made it obvious. India had won by 4 wickets at Adelaide, and Rahul Dravid had hit the winning runs. "Poetic justice!" is what he had said back then!

I had followed that Test series (from Brisbane to Sydney) by snatching updates on All India Radio and begging for more updates from professors whom I knew had internet connections. Despite the fact that we were clear underdogs, I still had hopes from our team. Back then, I was less of a realist and more of an optimist! I still remember thinking that during the World Cup less than a year before that series, India had clearly been the second best team. The time seemed ripe to take on the best team in their backyard!

And take them on we did! That Adelaide Test took my love for the game to a different level... particularly Test cricket! India had won after conceding more than 550 runs in the first innings. If the Eden Gardens miracle of 2001 was not enough, this one just reaffirmed my faith that there is no game quite like Test cricket!

And then, on the next day (17th December 2003), Rohit Brijnath became my favourite cricket writer with this wonderful piece on the front page of The Indian Express. Yes, those three "architects" of our win deserved no less!

That Australian summer changed a lot of things about my relationship with cricket! I had followed India's tours to England and the West Indies earlier in the decade with considerable studiousness, but this was the tour that created an impact... an impact that made cricket a lot bigger than a mere sport for me!

An hour before the Boxing Day Test match kicks off at Melbourne Cricket Ground, memories of that match at Adelaide (and to think that I managed to watch just the highlights) create a nostalgia in my mind. I hope that this series is just as hard fought and fairly-fought, and when "dusk begins its quiet descent", the winners are wearing blue caps!

THOUGHTS BEFORE AARON'S DEBUT TEST

Varun Aaron gets his first Test cap at the Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai today. He's played 12 First Class games before his Test call-up. And his First Class bowling average is 41.50 runs per wicket, striking at 77.2 balls per wicket - hardly the figures of a bowler that blasts his way even through domestic batting line-ups!

Aaron possesses speeds consistently averaging 140+ kmph, but there is no denying that his career has been built around just one delivery that he bowled at 153 kmph during the Vijay Hazare Trophy final for Jharkhand against Gujarat. Had he not touched the 150-mark in that match and continued with his regular 140-145 range, he might never have gotten his 2 ODIs and 1 Test (starting now) for India (and not to forget, an all-expense paid trip to England).

He performed decently in his 2 chances to represent India in ODIs, and now comes his Test debut. What if he does well here too? Are we going to take him to Australia then? Based on a decent performance against an English ODI team beaten 5-0, and upcoming performances (howsoever good) against a less-than-average West Indies side in 1 Test and upto 5 ODIs, are we really going to select him to tour Australia? I really don't think I need to mention the First Class average of 41.50 once again!

I really have no intention of sounding like a pessimist... just trying to be a realist here! Varun Aaron, with his speed, has promise and potential. But he needs to put in performances in the domestic circuit first and then rise higher. A media campaign following one delivery of 153 kmph should not be a basis for selection in India's team in any format of cricket. If he cannot improve that First Class record despite bowling against the Plate League batsmen in the Ranji Trophy, then I don't think he deserves to get his chance for an India cap.

A good performance at Wankhede Stadium today or through this Test match may make a lot of people say that my words have been proven wrong. But this is not an opinion that can change on the basis of one match, just like it was not formed on the basis of one delivery!

WHY ARE WE HERE?

India, the World No. 1 Test team, is very likely to relinquish the ranking very soon to the rampaging English team. It's been frustrating and embarrassing to witness this Test series for an Indian fan. It was a tad bit embarrassing to see our famed middle order, known for its prowess against spin bowling of all kinds, catapult against Mendis in Sri Lanka 2008. It was embarrassing also to watch a virtually limp Indian team surrender to Australia 3-0 back in 1999-2000. But none of those experiences come close to what I have seen over the last 3 weeks in England.

After the ultimate high of World Cup win, I am feeling a bottomless low even before this series has ended. The Indian supporter in me shall never die, but I pray that it never has to face this kind of embarrassment ever again!

But why has Team India reached this position in the Test series against England? Last time that India toured England in 2007, we won the series 1-0 with a similar Indian line-up against a similar English line-up. What has changed? Both the teams have gotten better since then for sure, even though the scoreline suggests that only one team has gotten better, and the other has gone down to pits!

Why are we performing so badly then? Many people have come up with different reasons and explanations. The primary reason for me is not something new and unknown... but I will come to that later. First, I want refute another view.

Sanjay Manjrekar thinks that our bowling attack lacks ability. Maybe, it does. But India beat Sri Lanka in Colombo with an attack of Ishant Sharma, Abhimanyu Mithun, Amit Mishra and Pragyan Ojha. India beat Australia in Perth with an attack of Irfan Pathan, RP Singh, Ishant Sharma and the great Anil Kumble. The current bowling attack of Praveen Kumar, Ishant Sharma, S Sreesanth and Harbhajan Singh / Amit Mishra is not much worse from those attacks. Both Sri Lanka and Australia were in-form teams at those times playing on their home grounds with a series lead in hand, very similar to England here!

Admittedly, this attack has misfired, and apart from Praveen Kumar, no one has been able to maintain consistency that demands respect from the batsmen... but is that the primary reason? Often in the past, our bowling attack has been helped by a scoreboard cushion provided by the batsmen, something that has not occurred this time.

This is the other reason that a lot of people have agreed on (and I agree too) - the failure to fire of our batting line-up. It has been somewhat surprising to see this line-up misfire so spectacularly. I still have no doubt that India's is the best batting line-up in the world in Test cricket. In the last five years, whenever our bowlers have managed to pick 20 opposition wickets, our batsmen have almost always ensured that they put enough runs on the board to beat the opponent. The only exceptions to this rule have been Lord's 2007 (draw), Cape Town 2011 (draw), Dominica 2011 (draw) and Nottingham 2011 (loss).

In fact, the last time (before Trent Bridge) that we lost a Test match despite our bowlers having taken 20 wickets was Mumbai 2006 against England. 5 years and a few months since then, there have only been those 4 aforementioned instances where the bowlers have done the job, and the batsmen have not capitalised. Worryingly, 3 of those incidents have come in a span of 7 months in 2011 while holding the No. 1 rank!

So if we agree that our batting failures is the single biggest cause of this situation in the series (and even if we do not agree, this question is still important), then the question that arises is how did it come to this! Why is the best batting line-up in the world misfiring so badly?

In the 1st Test, lack of acclimatisation could have been used as an excuse. But it's been 5 Test innings and 2 and a half practice match innings through this tour now, and we have not had a single collective batting performance to rejoice. Rahul Dravid has scored 2 hundreds, and there have been a few fifties to assuage some pride, but where is the good old Indian way of applying scoreboard pressure gone?

In my humble opinion, the failures have been caused not by the lack of acclimatisation, but by the lack of preparation. The English cricket team had their eyes set on an Ashes triumph in Australia, and so they prepared for it diligently and well in advance. They planned well, had contingency options ready, and when the time came, they delivered. They then had a new goal to aim for - the No. 1 ranking in Test cricket. They knew they would have to beat India at home quite comprehensively to attain that. So they prepared again, planned again, and seem to be delivering again!

It's not that the Indian team and its management is incapable of such planning. Our triumph at the World Cup 2011 is a prime example of how we planned for a campaign that was very precious and dear to us. Players have talked about how their mental preparation started a year before the World Cup in Dambulla. They have talked about how they worked at their fitness to be in the best shape during the final stages of the campaign. They have talked about how they wanted to peak at the right time. And they delivered!

So was it a case of not having planned and prepared well to take on England in England? Was there a bit of complacency after having creditably earned a draw away at South Africa just a few months ago? As a fan, I think that even I am a little guilty of having underestimated England a little bit before the series began.

But my assessment of England before the series was based on an English attack containing a misfiring Stuart Broad. But the Stuart Broad playing in this series is a different one from the one that played earlier against Sri Lanka and Australia in the Ashes!

Stuart Broad's new avatar has ensured that the English pace attack has been able to apply relentless pressure on the ill-prepared Indian batting line-up. In South Africa, after the pressure from Steyn and Morkel was over, India could play a few release shots against Tsotsobe, Kallis and Harris. Similarly, against all other attacks, our batsmen have always had at least 2 bowlers who could be attacked for pressure-release!

However, on the evidence of the cricket that has been played on this tour thus far, India's only hope for release in pressure has been in the form of Graeme Swann. The difficulty for the Indians has arisen because Strauss has rotated and managed his fast bowlers so well that Indians have not faced too much from Swann! Instead, it has been steady and relentless pressure and testing from a highly-skilled English pace attack!

When India's No. 1 ranking used to come under fire by people who used to say that they are not like the dominant West Indies and Australia of the past, I always defended India by saying that No. 1 ranking suggests that we are the best of the current lot. That ranking does not imply that the team owning it will be one of the all-time greats like those West Indian and Australian teams!

So going by the same logic, if and when England get to that ranking, I will accept their position there. However, to be dominant like West Indies and Australia, they will need to beat South Africa (home and away) as well as India (away). Nevertheless, if they get that No. 1 ranking, then No. 1 they will be, and deservedly so! As for India, I know that I will (like a lot of others) continue the support despite this nightmare. They may have been badly exposed this time in England, but the lessons will be learnt, and we will see better cricket from this team!

RETURNING AHEAD OF A HECTIC SEASON

It's been a long time since I wrote here... more than 2 months. The break was partly forced and partly self-imposed. But now that I get back to this blog, I realise how much I missed it... the blogging, commenting, tweeting, the entire package!

Since I last posted, a lot has happened in the world of cricket and other sports. In India, the IPL started, dragged along, and then finished, taking up almost 2 months of the calender. Yet, the champions remain unchanged as do the teams that qualify for the Champions League. After that, a youthful Indian side went to a Gayle-less West Indies, and won the Twenty20 and ODI series. On the administrative front, the BCCI v. DRS standoff continues. I will be writing a detailed post combining all my previous opinions on DRS soon.

The Sri Lankan cricket team is in England, fighting hard to gain something out of the Test series, while their Board is trying to convince the BCCI to send the Indian players to the SLPL. The English cricket team is, in the meanwhile, looking well-oiled and ominous for Indian fans. But there are certain chinks, as are bound to be in the best of teams!

The West Indies Cricket Board and Cricket Australia are involved in two different, yet similar standoffs. Chris Gayle and Simon Katich. "If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys" - that's the case in Cricket Australia. "If you have monkeys, you cannot expect much wisdom" - that's the case with the West Indies Cricket Board.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan Cricket Board continues to head the peanuts-monkeys scenario, with Ijaz Butt clearly the leader. The removal of Shahid Afridi and his temporary retirement, before fighting for his right to play cricket elsewhere in the Twenty20 format also made big news.

In South Africa, Gary Kirsten is the new coach and AB de Villiers the limited-overs captain. In New Zealand, cost-cutting is the word! The only Test-playing nation that has been relatively quiet with their cricket news over the last two months is Bangladesh... but then, that is how they have always been!

In football, the Champions League finals were played at the New Wembley, with Barcelona prevailing convincingly over the English champions, Manchester United. Though a Man-U follower myself, there is no denying that Barcelona is currently the best club in Europe, and it will take a super-human effort to beat them in their current form in a big match.

The Formula One news is all Sebastian Vettel! In 7 races, that boy has 5 wins and 2 second-place finishes! To think that it could have been 6-1 had it not been a final lap error at Montreal is just amazing! But Montreal did show that he does feel the pressure. And he is prone to making mistakes too. As the bandwagon moves to the European continent, McLaren-Mercedes and Ferrari will take heart from that Jenson Button victory in their efforts to fight back and close in the gap!

In Tennis, the Djoko-streak was broken by Federer, who was in turn broken by Nadal, who clinched his 6th French Open title. As the Wimbledon kicks off today with Rafael Nadal opening the proceedings on the Centre Court, the Gentlemen's Singles offers the most mouth-watering prospect of quality tennis, as the top-4 seeds look in great touch. The Indian presence too is quite strong in the Men's Doubles and to an extent, in the Women's Doubles.

Back to Cricket...

As the England - Sri Lanka Test series comes to an end today with England trying hard to press for a 2-0 win, the West Indies - India Tests will begin on the other side of the Atlantic. India's next 7 international matches will be Tests... and that is partly why I chose precisely this moment to get back to the blogosphere.

Though a Zaheer-less India may struggle a bit against West Indies, my mind goes back to a similar Zaheer-less India that won the Third Test in Sri Lanka not too long ago. I wonder if Praveen Kumar will get a chance to make his Test debut... it would be nice if that happens! And even though Virat Kohli is more or less certain to make his debut, which is a very promising development in India, my heart also goes out to Cheteshwar Pujara, who misses this tour because of an injury suffered during the IPL.

A hectic sporting season awaits... and I am delighted to be back!

STEVE TIKOLO

What is common between Marcus Trescothick, Subramanium Badrinath, Brad Hodge and Steve Tikolo? These are men who played less Test cricket in consideration of the respective talents that they had. One quit early, one suffered due to lack of chances, one just could not reproduce his domestic level of performances at the highest level, and one... that last one played for an Associate team!

Here's a look at the numbers generated by Steve Tikolo -

An ODI batting average of 29 does not do justice to him. A First Class batting average of almost 50 is a better indicator. The fact that he is the highest run-scorer in ODI cricket amongst players from Associate teams tells one story, the fact that the person second to him is a good 1003 runs behind him (just about 70% of his total) tells another story!

He's amongst the very few cricketers in the world who have played in 5 World Cups - a feat unachieved by 4 of the top-10 run-scorers in the history of ODI cricket and 7 of the top-10 wicket-takers. At one point in time, he was widely regarded as the best batsman outside of the Test-playing nations. Not without reason!

He was the captain when Kenya achieved their cricketing peak in 2003, when they reached the semi-finals of the World Cup 2003. He was present even in this World Cup in 2011, when Kenyan cricket is at its "lowest ebb".

He's been there and done that in respect of Kenyan cricket. He made his ODI debut together with Kenya's debut in a World Cup - back in 1996. He was a part of Kenya's first biggest triumph - the win over West Indies at Pune in that World Cup. He helped Kenya qualify for the next World Cup in 1999, and was their best player there. He led Kenya to a World Cup semi-finals in 2003. When the Kenyan cricket administration fell out with its stakeholders, he led a players' revolt to oust that old regime and took up the effort of rebuilding Kenyan cricket. It was fitting that the name synonymous with Kenyan cricket led them in his final appearance for them at an iconic ground, the Eden Gardens!

The farewell for Steve Tikolo did not go according to the script. But it was heartening to see his opponents (the Zimbabweans) giving him their respectful compliments when he made his final walk back to the pavilion as a Kenyan cricketer! Some players see their greatness celebrated, some others see their greatness hide in pages of history. Steve Tikolo was one of the latter breed of great cricketers, and this is just one of those pages of history!

To end this tribute to Steve Tikolo on a light note, here's what Andy Zaltzman tweeted in reply to me in respect of this Kenyan legend:

All the best for your future ventures, Steve Tikolo!

QUARTER FINALS PROBABILITIES - AFTER SL v. NZ

Sri Lanka's huge win over New Zealand at the Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai has now made calculations for the Quarterfinals lineup a lot easier. Group A has only one meaningful match remaining - Australia v. Pakistan. Group B has two - Bangladesh v. South Africa and India v. West Indies.

The table below shows the possibilities of Group standings taking into consideration the effects of Net Run Rate as well.

In the Group A standings, I have deliberately included a third option where points will be shared between the teams because of this:

So there you go... from the table above, the following statements can be conclusively made:

1. Sri Lanka will finish 2nd in Group A, irrespective of what happens between Australia v. Pakistan tomorrow at Colombo.

2. If the most likely scenario of SA beating BD, Aus beating Pak, and Ind beating WI, the Quarterfinals will be - South Africa v. Pakistan (Mirpur), India v. New Zealand (Ahmedabad), Sri Lanka v. England (Colombo), Australia v. West Indies (Mirpur).

3. Sri Lanka will contest their QF at home in Colombo unless SA beat BD (likely) AND WI beat Ind (unlikely).

4. South Africa will not play against Sri Lanka in the Quarterfinals... and so, their Quarterfinals will be held in Mirpur, Dhaka.

5. The last conclusion is not a result of the table above, but just a general one. Because of England's fantastic fluctuations in performances and results, the team managers of all teams (except India and South Africa) are facing a lot of logistical problems as they are unsure about where their Quarterfinals are likely to be held!

QUARTER FINALS PROBABILITIES - AFTER ENG v. WI

This post is in the updated version of my previous one regarding the Quarterfinals fixtures and their probabilities.

NOTES:

1. Out of the 6 remaining matches, 2 will have no impact on the Quarterfinals lineup - Ireland v. Netherlands and Kenya v. Zimbabwe.

2. I have assumed none of the matches will be washed out, even though the weather forecasts state that there will be scattered thunderstorms over Colombo on the day of Australia v. Pakistan match.

3. In all the matches, equal probabilities have been given for each side to emerge as the winner (even though, in my opinion, South Africa should be given a higher probability of winning against Bangladesh).

4. Lastly, I have assumed that the NRR of the teams will not change significantly over the remaining matches, and therefore, in case of a tie of points, the team with the higher NRR as of present has been ranked higher.

RESULTS:

Let us look at the probability of individual teams and their Quarter-final opponents.

GROUP A:

Australia -

Chances of playing Bangladesh in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing England in QFs: 25% (earlier 12.5%)
Chances of playing India in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing South Africa in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing West Indies in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 12.5%)

New Zealand -

Chances of playing Bangladesh in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing England in QFs: 12.5% (ealier 6.25%)
Chances of playing India in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing South Africa in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing West Indies in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)

Pakistan -

Chances of playing Bangladesh in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing England in QFs: 12.5% (ealier 6.25%)
Chances of playing India in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing South Africa in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing West Indies in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Sri Lanka -

Chances of playing Bangladesh in QFs: 25% (earlier 18.75%)
Chances of playing England in QFs: 0% (earlier 0%)
Chances of playing India in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing South Africa in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing West Indies in QFs: 25% (earlier 31.25%)

GROUP B:

Bangladesh -

Chances of playing Australia in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing New Zealand in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing Pakistan in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing Sri Lanka in QFs: 25% (earlier 18.75%)
Chances of not qualifying for QFs: 25% (earlier 12.5%)

England -

Chances of playing Australia in QFs: 25% (earlier 12.5%)
Chances of playing New Zealand in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 6.25%)
Chances of playing Pakistan in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 6.25%)
Chances of playing Sri Lanka in QFs: 0% (earlier 0%)
Chances of not qualifying for QFs: 50% (earlier 75%)

India -

Chances of playing Australia in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing New Zealand in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing Pakistan in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing Sri Lanka in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of not qualifying for QFs: 0% (earlier 0%)

South Africa -

Chances of playing Australia in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing New Zealand in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing Pakistan in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of playing Sri Lanka in QFs: 25% (earlier 25%)
Chances of not qualifying for QFs: 0% (earlier 0%)

West Indies -

Chances of playing Australia in QFs: 12.5% (earlier 12.5%)
Chances of playing New Zealand in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing Pakistan in QFs: 18.75% (earlier 21.875%)
Chances of playing Sri Lanka in QFs: 25% (earlier 31.25%)
Chances of not qualifying for QFs: 25% (earlier 12.5%)

However, like I have already said, I think these percentages above do not reflect a true picture because I have assumed equal chances of winning for both South Africa and Bangladesh in their match as well as the fact that I have assumed that the NRR will remain pretty much the same till the group stages finish. The worst affected due to these two assumptions is England.

I will keep updating the changes in these percentages above after the end of every match from hereon (except the ones that have no effect on these probabilities as mentioned in Note 1 above).